蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布对气候变化的响应OA北大核心CSTPCD

To understand the distribution characteristics of Amygdalus mongolica,a rare and endangered Tertiary in the Mongolian Plateau,and its response to future climatic change,climate and soil variables with 121 population distribution points of A.mongolica were selected,and the comprehensive habitat suitability model(CHS)in the R software Biomod2 modeling platform was constructed,which was used to simulate and predict suitable habitat under the current climatic condition and three different future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5)in the future(2050S and 2090S),and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics was analyzed,and the migration pattern of suitable habitat was explored.The results showed that the TSS of the climate suitability model(ensemble model)was＞0.75,the ROC of the distribution limitation model was＞0.90,which indicated that the comprehensive habitat suitability model selected in this study might accurately simulate the potential geographical distribution characteristics of A.mongolica under different climate scenarios.The suitable habitat area of A.mongolica at present was 64.00×104 km2,mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,Gansu and Ningxia,a small number distribution in Qinghai,Xinjiang,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei and other places.The suitable habitat area of A.mongolica showed a decreasing trend under three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)in the future,and the suitable habitat area under different climate scenarios in 2090S was smaller than that in 2050S.Its suitable distribution area extended to the west and higher latitudes as a whole.