华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）2024，Vol.40Issue(3)：37-47,11.DOI:10.13790/j.ncwu.sk.2024.031
碳水双重约束下产业结构优化与情景模拟
Industrial Structure Optimization and Scenario Simulation Under the Dual Constraints of Carbon and Water
摘要
Abstract
Industrial structure optimization is an important way to break the constraints of resources and environment and promote the sustainable development of economy and society.Henan Province is a major in-dustrial province.Under the background of the"Double Carbon"goal and the rigid constraint of water re-sources,how to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources and promote carbon emission reduction through industrial structure optimization is an urgent problem to be solved.Based on the data of water resource consumption and energy consumption in various industries in Henan Province,as well as the latest input-out-put table data,three scenarios were set up using multi-objective planning method to analyze the impact of in-dustrial structure adjustment on water conservation and carbon reduction goals in 2030.Combined with indus-try related indicators,the main directions for optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure in the future were proposed.The results show that:Firstly,from 2012 to 2017,the industrial added value and carbon emis-sions in Henan Province showed an overall upward trend,and the water consumption showed a downward trend.The forecast results show that in 2030,the total industrial added value of Henan Province will be 9,849.138 billion yuan,carbon emissions will be 0.204 billion tons,and water consumption will be 13.708 billion tons.Secondly,the optimization results show that under the scenario of positive adjustment of industrial structure(scenario 3),the carbon emissions will decrease by 8.33%and the water consumption will decrease by 16.72%in 2030,indicating that the increase of industrial structure adjustment can more ef-fectively promote the realization of the dual goals of water saving and carbon reduction.On this basis,the di-rection for optimizing the future industrial structure is proposed from the aspects of industries that are mainly encouraged and suppressed.Thirdly,it is suggested that in the future,the goal of carbon and water con-straints should be established to deepen the adjustment of industrial structure,encourage or restrain different industries,promote clean production and water-saving transformation of enterprises,and promote the transfor-mation of industrial structure with the goal of water saving and carbon reduction.关键词
产业结构/优化/多目标规划/碳水约束/河南省Key words
industrial structure/optimization/multi-objective programming/carbon and water con-straints/Henan Province分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
尤增涛,陈浩,肖连刚,赵荣钦..碳水双重约束下产业结构优化与情景模拟[J].华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）,2024,40(3):37-47,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41971241,42277325) （41971241,42277325）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD099) （23&ZD099）
河南省高校科技创新人才项目(人文社科类)(2021-CX-011) （人文社科类）
自然资源部碳中和与国土空间优化实验室2023年度开放基金项目 （）
