基于物种分布区模拟的中国山茶科植物分布格局与保护策略研究OACSTPCD

Theaceae plants play a vital role in the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests of China and are well-known for their significant biological,cultural,and economic values.Based on the species distribution model,this study simulated the potential dis-tribution area of Theaceae plants,and calculated the spatial pattern index of biodiversity,including species richness and phylogenetic diversity.Generalized linear model and spatial synchronous autoregressive model were used to analyze the driving factors of spatial pattern of species richness and phylogenetic diversity.The CANAPE(Categorical Analysis of Neo-and Paleo-Endemism)was used to classify and analyze the endemic centers of Theaceae plants,and infer their distribution pattern and historical process of forma-tion;According to the change of distribution area under the future climate scenario,the"shelter"was identified.The results show that:1)The diversity centers of Theaceae were located in Guangdong,Guangxi and Yunnan provinces in South and southwest China,and the species richness and phylogenetic diversity patterns of Theaceae showed obvious latitudinal gradients.2)The spatial pattern of Theaceae plant diversity was mainly driven by annual precipitation,and was sensitive to extreme low temperature and tempera-ture stability.3)The endemic centers of Theaceae were mainly distributed in southwest China,and most of them were mixed endem-ic centers.4)When climate changes,subtropical regions with sufficient rainfall and tropical regions with stable climate tend to be the"in-situ refuge"of Theaceae,while regions with stable climate become the"ex-situ refuge"of Theaceae.Under the future climate change scenario,most species distribution areas of Theaceae will migrate,and only a few species distribution areas will be stable.Daba Mountain and Wuling Mountain are also hot spots for Theaceae plants to migrate into,and this region is also one of the birth-places of endemic plants in China.These results are helpful to improve the scientific and effective protection of Theaceae plants.