水力发电学报2024，Vol.43Issue(3)：1-13,13.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20240301
气候变化对青海湖水位的影响及机理分析
Influence of climate change on Qinghai Lake stage and its mechanism analysis
摘要
Abstract
To systematically analyze the variations in the Qinghai Lake stage under climate change and the related influence mechanism,this paper presents a quantitative analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in the hydrological and meteorological factors of the lake basin,using a combination of time series analysis,a geostatistical interpolation method,and correlation analysis based on the data collected at the observation stations over the basin during 1956-2020.We use the global climate model to estimate the varying trends of precipitation and lake stage under different scenarios.The results show that during the past 50 years,the stage and surface area of the lake presented a general trend of decreasing first and then increasing,while an increasing trend occurred in runoff,precipitation and temperature,and a decreasing trend in evaporation.The lake stage was affected significantly by runoff,precipitation,temperature and evaporation;the correlation coefficients were as high as 0.95,0.92,0.88 and 0.81,respectively.We project that from 2021 to 2040,the lake stage will take a rising trend,showing annual average rising rates of 0.218,0.187,0.125 and 0.132 m/a under four different scenarios.Quantitative analysis of the lake behaviors under climate change in this study lays a basis for future studies on the water cycling mechanism of plateau lakes.关键词
气候变化/水文要素/时空变化/相关关系/青海湖流域Key words
climate change/hydrological factors/spatiotemporal changes/correlation/Qinghai Lake Basin分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
骆卓然,刘家宏,张尚弘,周晋军,张丽,邵薇薇..气候变化对青海湖水位的影响及机理分析[J].水力发电学报,2024,43(3):1-13,13.基金项目
青海省重点研发与转化计划项目(2022-SF-143) （2022-SF-143）
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202000) （2022YFC3202000）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2023MS068) （2023MS068）
