生态学报2024，Vol.44Issue(5)：1854-1867,14.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202206041572
长江流域生态退捕渔民生计脆弱性评价及生计风险预测
Livelihood vulnerability assessment and risk prediction for fishermen of ecological fish withdrawal in the Yangtze River Basin
摘要
Abstract
As the main participants of the ten years fishing ban policy in the Yangtze River,the subsequent livelihood development of fishermen will directly determine the implementation effect of the ecological protection policy.Based on the reconstruction of the livelihood vulnerability assessment system of involuntary ecological migrants and combined with the survey data of fishermen who have quit fishing to the key no-fishing waters of the Yangtze River Basin,the Livelihood vulnerability index(LVI)level of fishermen was measured,and the main obstacle factors affecting the subsequent livelihood recovery were identified.Finally,the cross-domain support vector regression(SVR)model prediction model was introduced to analyze the dynamic evolution trend of livelihood vulnerability of fishermen households in different regions.The results showed that:(1)the proportion of livelihood vulnerability of fishermen after abandoning their boats was high.Still,there were significant differences among different regions,among which the inner lake protected area was the highest,followed by the main stream non-reserve zone.The main stream-reserve zone was the lowest.(2)The sensitivity dimension played a leading role in inducing fishermen's livelihood vulnerability,suggesting that the individual endowment was more important than the conditions of resettlement areas.In particular,fishermen families with older members but no basic social security,low education level and difficult"double transfer"were more likely to fall into livelihood difficulties.(3)The natural and financial capital were the main livelihood capital to promote the recovery of fishermen's livelihood.The common factors that hindered the reduction of fishermen's livelihood vulnerability included the imbalance of income and expenditure after landing,insufficient social support and excessive dependence on the original livelihood,etc.At the same time,there were special obstacle factors in each dimension of vulnerability in each region.(4)The promotion of economic and social development and household income transformation in resettlement areas does not necessarily ensure the alleviation of livelihood vulnerability of fishermen households in the next five years.It is also crucial to complete social integration and effectively reduce production and living costs after migration.In addition,the main stream reserve zone need to strengthen the construction of human capital,otherwise they will face a very high risk of returning to poverty.(5)The livelihood vulnerability status,livelihood risks and subsequent livelihood recovery process of similar fishermen in the area near the Yangtze River had certain similarities and regularity,and livelihood monitoring and support policies could be overall planned and coordinated.关键词
退捕渔民/长江禁渔/生计脆弱性/生计风险/支持向量回归Key words
fishermen quit fishing/Yangtze River fishing ban/livelihood vulnerability/livelihood risk/support vector regression引用本文复制引用
赵旭,向恒星,赵菲菲..长江流域生态退捕渔民生计脆弱性评价及生计风险预测[J].生态学报,2024,44(5):1854-1867,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72271142) （72271142）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJCZH264) （19YJCZH264）
湖北省高校优秀中青年科技创新团队项目(T2022006) （T2022006）
