干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(3)：369-379,11.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.448
不同温升情景下中国旱灾风险变化评估
Assessment of drought risk changes in China under different temperature rise scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Drought is one of the most disastrous extreme climate events.Studying the changes in drought risk against the background of future global warming is beneficial for scientifically advancing disaster prevention and reduction work deployment.The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was calculated using data from 20 climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.Drought characteris-tic variables were extracted for the baseline period and global temperature rise scenarios of 2℃,3℃,and 4℃in China,and the drought hazard index(DHI)was calculated.Based on the disaster-bearing body projection data,the drought exposure index(DEI),drought vulnerability index(DVI),and drought risk index(DRI)were compre-hensively calculated.The distribution pattern of drought risk in China was further analyzed,and a spatial attribu-tion analysis of future drought risk changes was performed using a geodetector.The results showed that the spa-tial distribution of DHI,DEI,and DVI exhibited higher values in the northwest and southeast,a pattern of being high in the east and low in the west,and a trend of being high in the west and low in the east,respectively.Based on this,the DRI specially showed a spatial positive correlation dominated by high-and low-value clustering.With an increase in the temperature rise level,the future drought risk will mainly increase across China,and the increase in the eastern coastal areas would be the most obvious.Changes in population,gross domestic product,and the proportion of cultivated land were found to be the main factors affecting changes in drought risk.关键词
旱灾风险/CMIP6/温升情景/空间自相关/地理探测器Key words
drought risk/CMIP6/temperature rise scenario/spatial autocorrelation/geodetector引用本文复制引用
卢冬燕,朱秀芳,唐明秀,郭春华,刘婷婷..不同温升情景下中国旱灾风险变化评估[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(3):369-379,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上基金项目(42077436) （42077436）
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0606900)资助 （2019YFA0606900）
