摘要
Abstract
In order to accurately assess the leakage risk existing in the operation of submarine pipelines,an index system of submarine pipeline leakage risk assessment was established on the basis of investigation of submarine pipeline accident databases at home and abroad.G1 method and entropy weight method were used to assign subjective and objective weights to each index,and the relationship between the two weights was coordinated by game theory.Finally,set pair analysis method was used to process the indicators.The leakage risk levels of different pipe segments are obtained.The results show that the weight of the combination of game theory is more reasonable,and the index with the combination weight greater than 0.06 is the density of fishing vessels,the density of shipping vessels,typhoon,seawater corrosion,H2S corrosion,earthquake and pipeline buried depth in order from the largest to the smallest.The higher risk level of pipe segments 12 and 20 is level IV,and through the set pair potential analysis,it is found that pipe segments 9,13,15 and 20 are in the same potential area,indicating that the risk has a tendency to develop to a higher level.The risk of pipeline leakage can be reduced by limiting ship speed,prohibiting berthing in pipeline protection area,setting up weather warning device,strengthening patrol line,setting up warning sign and so on.The research results are expected to provide guidance for improving the operation and management level of submarine pipelines.关键词
海底管道/泄漏风险/博弈论-集对分析/组合赋权Key words
submarine pipeline/leakage risk/game theory-set pair analysis/combination weighting分类
能源科技
