南方农业学报2023，Vol.54Issue(12)：3571-3580,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2023.12.011
基于BioMod2组合模型下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适宜生境分布变化研究
Variation of suitable habitat distribution distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith)in Yunnan based on BioMod2 combination model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Prediction of habitat distribution change of Spodoptera frugiperda in Yunnan Province under the background of climate change,and it will provide scientific reference for agricultural departments to carry out the pre-vention and control of S.frugiperda and monitoring.[Method]By systematically collecting the distribution points of S.frugiperda in Yunnan Province,combined with our field survey data,then the BioMod2 combination model and ArcGIS 10.7 software was used to simulate the potential distribution change of S.frugiperda under current and future climatic con-ditions.[Result]The results show that the 9 species distribution models were composed to obtain the mean values of AUC,TSS and Kappa of the combined model being 0.994,0.980 and 0.943,respectively,among which GBM,GLM,RF and ANN are the optimal models for predicting the habitat distribution of S.frugiperda.The worst performing model is SRE,which fails the model accuracy test.The four most important environmental variables affecting S.frugiperda were slope,altitude,annual mean temperature and max temperature of warmest month.In the current period,the suitable area for S.frugiperda is 329,400 km2,accounting for 83.61%of the total area of Yunnan Province.Under the conditions of future climate simulation,the suitable area has a relatively obvious expansion trend,especially the low and high suitable areas will expand significantly,with an average expansion of 27.84%and 12.80%,respectively,while the unsuitable and medium suitable areas will decrease,the mean decline was 19.69%and 32.92%,respectively.Planting land in the high suitable areas are seriously threatened by S.frugiperda,and need to focus on prevention and control.In unsuitable areas,the damage of S.frugiperda to planted crops should be monitored in real-time.[Conclusion]Predictions based on future climate change show that the potential suitable areas for S.frugiperda in Yunnan Province has obviously expanded,and there is a trend of spreading to the high latitude and altitude areas.Our results suggest that the climate change may result in the risk of continuous spread and harm increasing.Therefore,more efforts should be made to study and control this inva-sive agricultural pest.In particular,close attention should be paid to the development of S.frugiperda situation in the severely affected areas and newly affected areas.关键词
草地贪夜蛾/BioMod2组合模型/生境分布变化/风险防控Key words
Spodoptera frugiperda/BioMod2 combination model/Changes in habitat distribution/Risk control分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
袁煜林,吕建平,潘嫦艳,廖周洋,侯墨林,邓忠坚,张媛..基于BioMod2组合模型下草地贪夜蛾在云南省的适宜生境分布变化研究[J].南方农业学报,2023,54(12):3571-3580,10.基金项目
"兴滇英才支持计划"青年人才专项(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0207) （XDYC-QNRC-2022-0207）
云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室开放基金项目(ZKJS-S-202203) （ZKJS-S-202203）
云南省环境保护专项(632108) Funded by the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Forest Disaster Warning and Control in Yun-nan Province(ZKJS-S-202203) （632108）
"Yunnan Talented Person Support Plan"for young talents programme(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0207) （XDYC-QNRC-2022-0207）
Yunnan Province Environmental Protection Special Project(632108) （632108）
