西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.60Issue(2)：110-122,13.DOI:10.16783/j.cnki.nwnuz.2024.02.017
城镇化耦合协调发展的时空演化规律及其影响因素
Spatial-temporal evolution of coupled and coordinated urbanization and its influencing factors
摘要
Abstract
Under the background that China's economic development is gradually turning to the stage of high-quality growth,it is of great practical significance to study the coordinated development degree of urban unit urbanization for transforming the mode of urban economic growth and promoting the high-quality development of the city.Based on the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2019,the coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatial-temporal data analysis method is used to identify and characterize the spatial-temporal pattern characteristics of coupled and coordinated urbanization development level from the perspective of urbanization level and urbanization quality,and analyzes the driving factors and spatial effects of coupled and coordinated urbanization development in China with the help of spatial panel Durbin model.The results show that:During the study period,the coupled coordinated development of Urbanization in China is at a low level,but it continues to rise,and the inter-city differences continue to narrow.The spatial pattern shows a zonal characteristic of"high in the east and low in the west"and"high in the south and low in the north".Moran's I index shows that the coupled coordinated development of Urbanization in China presents a spatial agglomeration distribution,and the agglomeration degree increases with time.The time path analysis shows that the local spatial structure and spatial dependence of coordinated urbanization development are stable,and its spatial pattern evolution shows the dynamic characteristics of spatial integration.The spatial-temporal transition analysis shows that the coordinated development of urbanization has obvious characteristics of path dependence and space lock.Economic development,population size,human capital,scientific and technological innovation,industrial structure and government capacity have positive and direct effects on the coordinated development of local urbanization.Human capital,scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure have negative spillover effects on the coordinated development of neighborhood urbanization,while population size has positive spillover effects on the coordinated development of neighborhood urbanization.In the process of future urban development,regional differences and spatial spillover effects of coordinated urbanization development should be considered comprehensively,and guidelines and policies for promoting high-quality urbanization development should be formulated according to local conditions.关键词
城镇化协调发展/城镇化水平和质量/耦合协调度模型/空间计量模型Key words
urban coordinated development/level and quality of urbanization/coupling coordination degree model/spatial econometric model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
栗向阳,王磊,张宇欣..城镇化耦合协调发展的时空演化规律及其影响因素[J].西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,60(2):110-122,13.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(19YJA630079) （19YJA630079）
教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目(19YJA630079) （19YJA630079）
