水资源与水工程学报2024，Vol.35Issue(1)：37-46,56,11.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.01.05
基于SD模型的张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算与预测
Calculation and prediction of water resources eco-footprint in Zhangye Basin based on SD model
摘要
Abstract
According to the water resources eco-footprint model,the SD(system dynamics)model of wa-ter resources utilization of the Zhangye Basin(hereinafter referred to as ZB)is constructed,with which five different scenarios are designed to evaluate and predict the water resources eco-footprint and bioca-pacity of status quo(2000-2020)and future(2021-2050)in ZB.The results show that as for status quo,the average values of per capita water resources eco-footprint,biocapacity and ecological gains and losses are3.517,0.272 and-3.245 hm2/capita,and the average values of water resources ecological stress index and eco-footprint intensity are12.969 and2.822 hm2/104 RMB,respectively.The agricul-tural water use occupies an dominant portion in the calculation of the water resources eco-footprint in ZB,but the proportion is decreasing.Therefore,the focus of water conservation in ZB lays in the agricultural field,as it has a great water-saving potential.The eco-footprint intensity of water resources shows a sig-nificant downward trend,with a drop rate of 90.21%,indicating that the water resources utilization effi-ciency in ZB is improving;however,its water resources utilization pressure is relatively high.On aver-age,the per capita ecological footprint of water resources in different scenarios of the ZB during the pre-diction period is greater than the per capita ecological carrying capacity of water resources,resulting in ecological losses of per capita water resources.The average values of water resources ecological stress in-dex and eco-footprint intensity under the five scenarios are 12.932,13.483,10.055,12.698 and 9.846,and 0.281,0.206,0.201,0.281 and 0.196 hm2/104 RMB,respectively.In the future,the water resources utilization in ZB will still in an unsafe situation.From 2021 to 2050,the ZB cannot effec-tively alleviate the shortage of water resource utilization,and a development plan that balances economic development and water resources protection needs to be adopted.It is recommended that the relevant gov-ernment departments should adopt scenario ZS5.In the future,the development of water resources utiliza-tion in ZB requires the joint efforts of all society and various departments.Continuous improvement of wa-ter resources utilization,vigorous promotion of the popularization and application of water conservation measures and technologies are the key to the sustainability of water resources utilization.关键词
水资源生态足迹/水资源生态承载力/可持续水资源利用/系统动力学/SD模型/张掖盆地Key words
water resources eco-footprint/water resources biocapacity/sustainable water resources utili-zation/system dynamics(SD)/SD model/the Zhangye Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
秦欢欢,黄丽想..基于SD模型的张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算与预测[J].水资源与水工程学报,2024,35(1):37-46,56,11.基金项目
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104) （DHBK2016104）
