水资源与水工程学报2024，Vol.35Issue(1)：57-64,8.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.01.07
引汉济渭工程初期调水风险特征研究
Characteristics of initial water diversion risk in Hanjiang-to-Weihe Project
摘要
Abstract
Currently,the Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Diversion Project is facing the dilemma of incomplete identification of risk factors and characteristic rules in the water diversion process.Here,the expert in-vestigation method was adopted to identify the main risk factors of the project and determine the risk port-folio types,and then the risk degree model was established to analyze the stability of single risk factors and the characteristic rules of risk portfolios.The results show that the greater the coefficient of variation,the worse the stability of the risk factors,and the risk of management failure is the most unstable,reac-hing 0.998.The risk portfolio of insufficient water source and increasing water demand is more hazardous than other portfolios.There is no obvious positive correlation between the risk degree and the risk factor quantity of risk portfolios.The research results complement the deficiency of the study on the risk charac-teristics of the water diversion project,and provide technical support for the formulation of targeted risk mitigation,control and management strategies.关键词
跨流域调水工程/危险度模型/风险量化/风险组合特征/引汉济渭工程Key words
inter-basin water diversion project/risk degree model/risk quantification/risk portfolio characteristics/Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Diversion Project分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
韩雨薇,薛小杰,白涛,刘刚,刘茜..引汉济渭工程初期调水风险特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2024,35(1):57-64,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300) （2022YFC3202300）
陕西省科技厅联合基金项目(2019JLM-52、2021JLM-44) （2019JLM-52、2021JLM-44）
