水资源与水工程学报2024，Vol.35Issue(1)：71-81,11.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.01.09
基于脱钩指数和LMDI的第三产业用水发展研究
Development of water use of the tertiary industry based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI
摘要
Abstract
The tertiary industry plays an important role in China's national economy.It is of great signifi-cance to identify the relationship between water use and industrial development and reasonably control the development of water use in order to control the growth of total water use in the future.Based on the Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI decomposition model,we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of the decoupling between the tertiary industry economy and water use,as well as their driving effects in 31 pro-vincial-level administrative regions in mainland China during 2000-2020.Based on the analysis results,a scenario analysis was carried out on the water use target and water saving pressure of the industry in the fu-ture.The results show that from the temporal perspective,the tertiary industry has achieved a stable weak decoupling,with an average annual economic growth rate of 12.2%,which is much higher than the average annual change rate of water use(3.6%),and the scope of strong decoupling has expanded nationwide since 2012.From the spatial perspective,the decoupling status of the tertiary industry varied in different re-gions,which performed well in the eastern and western regions,with the proportion of strong decoupling a-chieve good decoupling reaching 70% to 80%.In terms of driving factors,the main negative driving effect of the tertiary industry decoupling was economic scale,and the positive driving effect was water saving ca-pacity.The contribution rate of water-saving capacity effect in eastern and western regions reached 56.8% and 52.6%,respectively,whereas the contribution rate was only 38.3%in the central region,because the differences in the driving effects impacted the decoupling.In order to realize the coordinated and sustainable development of the tertiary industry in the future,water saving pressure is inevitable.The process of eco-nomic growth has a cumulative effect of scale and time,and the economy will reach 8.8% in 2050 after years of high speed development.Therefore,it is necessary to pay more attention to the water saving capaci-ty to promote a good decoupling of the tertiary industry in the long-term planning,so as to realize the coordi-nated and sustainable development of economy.关键词
第三产业用水/经济发展/脱钩模型/LMDI分解/用水目标Key words
water use of the tertiary industry/economic development/decoupling model/LMDI decompo-sition/water use goal分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
姚园,李海红,李溦,赵勇,王丽珍..基于脱钩指数和LMDI的第三产业用水发展研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2024,35(1):71-81,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
国家自然科学基金项目(52025093、52239004、52061125101、52109042) （52025093、52239004、52061125101、52109042）
