中国电力2024，Vol.57Issue(3)：183-189,7.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309122
考虑多重因素叠加情景的能源清洁低碳转型风险评估
Risk Assessment of Clean and Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Considering Superimposed Scenario of Multiple Factors
摘要
Abstract
At present,China's clean and low-carbon energy transformation mainly faces four risks:sustainable supply,sociality,geography,and sanctions.This article establishes a risk assessment model for clean and low-carbon energy transformation and arranges 11 superposed scenarios of risk factors according to the combinations of"superposition of two factors,three factors,and all factors".Based on the analytic hierarchy process,the probability and impact degree of various scenarios in clean and low-carbon energy transformation are studied.On this basis,power grid enterprises are suggested as backbone enterprises serving clean and low-carbon energy transformation and promoting new power system construction.It is necessary to moderately advance the construction of power grids and the development of regulatory resources,promote the construction of risk warning,policy dynamic evaluation,and key raw materials for clean and low-carbon energy transformation,as well as research and development reserve mechanisms of"bottleneck"technology,and focus on preventing the impact of dual endogenous risks and dual external risks.关键词
能源转型/清洁低碳/多重因素/叠加情景/风险研判Key words
energy transformation/clean and low-carbon/multiple factors/superimposed scenarios/risk assessment引用本文复制引用
王轶楠,卢静,陈星彤,代红才..考虑多重因素叠加情景的能源清洁低碳转型风险评估[J].中国电力,2024,57(3):183-189,7.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(支撑集群化新能源与大受端电网融合发展的碳电协同规划与低碳能源互联网关键技术研究,5100-202119559A-0-5-SF). This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC(Research on Key Technologies of Carbon and Electricity Collaborative Planning and Low-Carbon Energy Internet that Support the Integrated Development of Clustered New Energy and Large Receiver Power Grids,No.5100-202119559A-0-5-SF). （支撑集群化新能源与大受端电网融合发展的碳电协同规划与低碳能源互联网关键技术研究,5100-202119559A-0-5-SF）
