海相油气地质2024，Vol.29Issue(1)：90-98,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-9854.2024.01.008
油气探矿权出让区块价值评估技术及其应用
Block value evaluation technology of oil and gas exploration right and its application:discounted cash flow method based on Monte Carlo simulation
摘要
Abstract
Under the new situation that the ways to obtain the oil and gas exploration right has been reformed from the previous application first,"no cost"acquisition to open competition through bidding,auction,listing and"the one with the highest price or the best evaluated bidder obtains",it is urgent to establish a set of block value evaluation techniques and methods for oil and gas exploration right,determine the value of the granting block,and formulate a bidding scheme to obtain the exploration right by open competition.Aiming at the uncertainty of oil and gas geological conditions,exploration and development technology,market and other aspects in the exploration and development of oil and gas mineral resources,this paper puts forward an economic evaluation method of discounted cash flow based on Monte Carlo simulation.According to the uncertainty of expected oil and gas resources,exploration and development investment,operating cost and sales income,this method can obtain the value of the granting blocks under different probability conditions and then provide a basis for the preparation of bidding scheme.This method has been applied to the value evaluation of the granting block of oil and gas exploration right in Tarim Basin,Xinjiang.Corresponding to different competitive quotations,the probability of occurrence for enterprise's internal rate of return is calculated respectively.When the quotation is 485 million yuan,it is estimated that the probability of the internal rate of return exceeding 8％is 75.4％.Ultimately,the exploration right of the granting block was clinched a deal with 485.32 million yuan,indicating that the evaluation method is feasible.The economic evaluation method of discounted cash flow based on Monte Carlo simulation provides decision-making basis for enterprises to adapt to the competitive granting policy of oil and gas mining right,and has important practical significance for enterprises to openly compete for oil and gas mining right.关键词
油气探矿权/价值评估/蒙特卡罗摸拟/折现现金流法/竞争性出让Key words
oil and gas exploration right/value assessment/Monte Carlo simulation/discounted cash flow/competitive granting分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
倪新锋,刘军平,郭沫贞,王晓星,吴培红,杨钊..油气探矿权出让区块价值评估技术及其应用[J].海相油气地质,2024,29(1):90-98,9.基金项目
本文受中国石油油气和新能源分公司重点科技项目"矿权区块精细评价和价值评估技术研究"(编号:2022KT0407)、勘探前期项目"股份公司矿权年检与海相盆地区块动态管理支持"(编号:2023YQX402-4)联合资助 （编号:2022KT0407）
