近30a城市土地利用变化模拟研究进展OACHSSCDCSTPCD

The simulation of urban land use change is a research hotspot in the field of land science.This study employs a comprehensive literature review,summarizing findings,and logical reasoning to examine both theo-retical and practical progress in urban land use change simulations,both domestically and internationally.The aim is to distill the achievements,identify gaps,and discern future research trends to inform urban land use research and decision-making processes in urban land management.Findings indicate that research in urban land use change simulation has evolved from single-variable quantity or spatial predictions to more complex,multi-scenario,and multi-model coupling approaches.The theoretical framework and simulation methods for urban land use change have gradually improved,with increased stakeholder participation in scenario setting,simula-tion,and result validation.However,there are limitations in the current research:a lack of studies on global and local scales,relatively homogenous simulation methods,and immature result validation techniques,with an over-reliance on historical data for verification.Future efforts in urban land use change simulation should focus on enhancing the scalability and reliability of simulation models.This will further enable the prediction and explanation of land use change patterns and processes and advance the application of scenario simulations in decision-support contexts.