人民黄河2024，Vol.46Issue(4)：55-61,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.04.009
考虑决策者情绪的暴雨动态贝叶斯网络情景推演
Consider the Heavy Rain Dynamic Bayesian Network Scenario Deduction of Decision Makers
摘要
Abstract
In order to deal with the complex evolutionary process of the"July 20"heavy rainfall disaster in Henan province and verify the scientific and effective emergency management measures,by using dynamic Bayesian network and applying evidence theory and emotional re-newal mechanism,this paper proposed a scenario inference model which combined subjective and objective factors,and paid more attention to the research of decision-maker's emotion and other subjective factors.The results show that the dynamic Bayesian network can effectively simulate the dynamic process of scenario deduction,and the improved DS evidence theory can reduce the subjectivity of the model and deal with the uncertainty of the evolution process,the emotion renewal mechanism can effectively quantify the emotion change of decision-makers.关键词
动态贝叶斯/情景推演/情景要素/改进DS证据理论/情绪更新机制Key words
dynamic Bayesian/scenario deduction/scenario elements/improved DS evidence theory/sentiment update mechanism分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
谢小良,田宇章..考虑决策者情绪的暴雨动态贝叶斯网络情景推演[J].人民黄河,2024,46(4):55-61,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目(22ATJ008) （22ATJ008）
湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(20A127) （20A127）
湖南省研究生一般项目(CX20211107) （CX20211107）
