中国电机工程学报2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：2236-2244,后插12,10.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.221740
不同"碳达峰"情景下火电行业环境效益预测及分析
Prediction and Analysis of Thermal Power Generation Environmental Benefit Under Different"Carbon Peak"Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the environmental benefits of thermal power in China under the goal of"carbon peak",starting from China's"14th Five-Year Plan"and the long-term goal of 2035,a prediction model of environmental benefit targets is established based on the Verhulst grey model,and six scenarios are set up with the peak time from 2025 to 2030,and the CO2,SO2,NOx and particulate matter(PM)emissions and emission reductions under different scenarios are calculated and analyzed.The results show that in all scenarios,the emissions of CO2,SO2,NOx and PM gradually increase from 2021 to the peak year,and then decrease rapidly until 2035 after the peak.The scenarios in which CO2 emission reductions will be positive before 2035 are the peaks in 2025 and 2026.The cumulative emission reductions of CO2 from 2032 to 2035 are 431 million tons when peaking in 2025;the cumulative CO2 emission reductions from 2034 and 2035 are 77 million tons when peaking in 2026;the emission reductions of SO2,NOx and PM are positive from 2021 to 2035.The cumulative emission reductions of SO2,NOx and PM from 2021 to 2035 are 1 276.73,933.02 and 268.36 million tons when peaking in 2025.The delay of the peak year will lead to a gradual decrease in the cumulative emission reductions of SO2,NOx and PM from 2021 to 2035.Finally,the implementation path of the environmental benefit target of thermal power is proposed according to the research results.关键词
火力发电/碳达峰/二氧化碳/大气污染物/环境效益Key words
thermal power generation/carbon peak/CO2/atmospheric pollutants/environmental benefits分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
刘春景,吕建燚,徐卿,金玉佳,赵汶畅..不同"碳达峰"情景下火电行业环境效益预测及分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2024,44(6):2236-2244,后插12,10.基金项目
北京市自然科学基金项目(3202029).Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation(3202029). （3202029）
