安全、健康和环境2024，Vol.24Issue(3)：1-8,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7932.2024.03.001
LNG气化站泄漏动态风险概率评估方法及应用
Evaluation Method and Application of Dynamic Risk Probability of Leakage in LNG Gasification Station
摘要
Abstract
In order to evaluate the dynamic risk prob-ability of natural gas leakage during the whole opera-tion cycle of liquefied natural gas gasification station,based on Bayesian network and fuzzy set theory,a dynamic risk probability assessment method of natural gas leakage during the whole operation cycle of lique-fied natural gas gasification station was proposed.The results showed that without human intervention,the probability of LNG leakage in the gasification station was between medium and low,the probability of LNG leakage in the emergency stage was larger,and the probability of LNG leakage in the storage stage was smaller.Through the reverse inference function of Bayesian network,the quality of flash steam heater,storage tank,other gasification equipment,pipeline in storage tank area and flash steam transmission pipeline were the main factors leading to natural gas leakage in emergency stage.This method can over-come the shortcomings of the traditional static analysis method and predict the dynamic evolution process of the natural gas leakage risk probability in the whole operation cycle of the LNG gasification station.It can provide technical reference for risk control and safety management of LNG gasification station.关键词
贝叶斯网络/模糊集/液化天然气(LNG)/气化站/风险分析/天然气泄漏/风险评估Key words
Bayesian network/fuzzy set/LNG/gasi-fication station/risk analysis/gas leakage/risk as-sessment分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
郝武民,郑建国,张志鹏..LNG气化站泄漏动态风险概率评估方法及应用[J].安全、健康和环境,2024,24(3):1-8,8.基金项目
中国辐射防护研究院青年基金项目(YQ22000207),核设施厂房消防疏散优化技术研究. （YQ22000207）
