摘要
Abstract
Objective:To establish a column chart to predict the survival rate of male nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients.Methods:Clinical data of male nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients from 2010 to 2015 were downloaded and extracted from the SEER database.They were randomly divided into a modeling group(811 cases)and a validation group(363 cases).Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression was used to screen independent variables,and Cox competitive risk model was used for multivariate analysis.A column chart was constructed to predict the 1-year,3-year and the 5-year survival probability.The consistency index(C-index),calibration curve,and Area under a receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)were used to assess the model's differentiation and accuracy.The clinical applicability value of the model was evaluated using the clinical decision curve analysis(DCA),and the risk score of the model was calculated based on the constructed model.The models were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups at the median level,and the survival curves between the high-risk group and low-risk group was compared.Results:A total of 1 174 patients were included,including the modeling group(n=811)and the validation group(n=363).Lasso regression and cox regression analysis showed that T stage,M stage,age,brain metastasis,liver metastasis,and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for male nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.The C-index of the modeling group and the validation group were 0.676(95%CI:0.642-0.701)and 0.668(95%CI:0.619-0.717),respectively.The AUC results of the modeling and validation groups indicate that the ROC curve exhibits high accuracy.The calibration curve demonstrates a high level of consistency between observed and predicted values,confirming the successful construction of the prognostic model.there were statistical differences in the survival curves between the modeling group and the validation group(P＜0.000 1).Conclusion:This study identified risk factors for survival in male nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients.T stage,M stage,age,brain metastasis,liver metastasis,and lung metastasis are independent risk factors for male nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.This model helps guide clinical physicians in making treatment choices and prolonging survival rates of patients.关键词
SEER数据库/男性/鼻咽癌/预后/鳞状细胞癌Key words
SEER database/Male/Nasopharyngeal carcinoma/Prognosis/squamous cell carcinoma分类
医药卫生
