兰州大学学报（医学版）2024，Vol.50Issue(1)：16-20,5.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.1000-2812.2024.01.003
非酒精性脂肪性肝病发病的预测研究——基于前瞻性队列
Prediction of the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease:A prospective cohort study
摘要
Abstract
Objective To identify risk factors with the onset of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and develop a prediction model for its incidence.Methods 22 702 participants were randomly assigned to the training and the validation set at 70%(n =15 892)and 30%(n = 6 810).A nomogram model for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was constructed using Lasso-Cox regression.The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve(AUC)was used to assess model discriminability.Results body mass index,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,hyperuricemia,alanine aminotransferase and triglycerides were statistically significant for the onset of nonal-coholic fatty liver disease and were used to construct the nomogram.In the training set,AUC was 0.72,0.73 and 0.73 at 2,3,4 years,respectively.In the validation set,AUC was 0.72,0.74 and 0.76 at 2,3,4 years,re-spectively.Conclusions The nomogram had a good predictive value for the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liv-er disease within 4 years.关键词
非酒精性脂肪性肝病/发病率/预测模型/列线图/前瞻性队列Key words
nonalcoholic fatty liver disease/incidence/predictive model/nomogram/prospective cohort分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
巫元琴,龙现珍,丁姣,史典,任晓宇,张德生,白亚娜,程宁,刘艳艳,程治远,尹春,张蔚,李娜,华宏昊,吴喜江,王玉峰..非酒精性脂肪性肝病发病的预测研究——基于前瞻性队列[J].兰州大学学报（医学版）,2024,50(1):16-20,5.基金项目
金川集团公司职工代谢性疾病全程管理体系建设资助项目(金科综2020-02) （金科综2020-02）
