饲料研究2024，Vol.47Issue(5)：182-186,5.DOI:10.13557/j.cnki.issn1002-2813.2024.05.034
基于VAR模型的生猪产业链价格波动影响因素分析
Analysis of influencing factors of price fluctuation in pig industry chain based on VAR model
摘要
Abstract
The drastic price fluctuation of pig industry chain is not only related to the vital interests of consumers,but also has an important impact on the long-term development of pig industry.Based on 161 monthly sample data from 2009 to 2022,using the VAR model,this paper explores the influencing factors of price fluctuation of pig industry chain from two levels:The main product prices of pig industry chain,upstream link and middle-down stream link.The research shows that the price fluctuation of pig industry chain is most affected by the prices of its main products,and the prices of main products in the first 10 periods still have 61.835 8％influence on the price fluctuation of pig industry chain in the current month.From the upstream link of industrial chain,rice bran price,soybean price and wheat bran price can all have a significant impact on the price fluctuation of pig industrial chain,and the impact of rice bran price in the first 10 periods on the price fluctuation of pig industrial chain in the current month is 39.783 8％.From the middle-down stream link of the industrial chain,inflation level and farm scale have a great influence on the price fluctuation of pig industrial chain.Research has shown that the price fluctuations in the pig industry chain are easily influenced by factors such as the prices of its main products,rice bran,soybeans,wheat bran,inflation levels,and farm scale.Therefore,efforts should be made to improve the price fluctuation warning mechanism and enhance the regulation of circulation and operation links to promote the stable development of the pig market.关键词
生猪产业链/价格波动/VAR模型Key words
pig industry chain/price fluctuation/VAR model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘彧..基于VAR模型的生猪产业链价格波动影响因素分析[J].饲料研究,2024,47(5):182-186,5.基金项目
河南省教改课题(项目编号:2021SJGLX746) （项目编号:2021SJGLX746）
