食管疾病2024，Vol.6Issue(1)：28-34,7.DOI:10.15926/j.cnki.issn2096-7381.2024.01.006
经新辅助放化疗食管癌患者列线图的构建及验证
Construction and Verification of the Nomogram in Esophageal Cancer Patients undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct and verify the survival prediction model of Esophageal Cancer(EC)patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy(NCRT)based on SEER database and external data.Methods The data of EC patients with NCRT from 2010 to 2015 were collected by SEER Stat8.4.1.2,and were divided into the training set and the internal validation set in a ratio of 7 ∶ 3.A total of 53 EC pa-tients with NCRT admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from 2014 to 2018 were collected as an external validation set.The variables included in the columns were screened by Cox regression analysis.ROC curve,C-index,DCA curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the nomogram,and ROC curve and net reclassification index(NRI)were used to compare the nomogram model with AJCC staging sys-tem.Results Sex,degree of differentiation,LODDS and AJCC stage were considered to be prognostic factors in EC patients undergoing NCRT(P<0.05),and build a prediction model based on it.The accuracy,differentiation and benefit of the model are good,and the predicted value is in good agreement with the actual observed value.They were divided into high and low risk groups based on the score of the nomogram.Survival curves and heat maps determined that there were significant differences in prognosis among different groups.Conclusion The model constructed in this study can effectively predict the 1-year,3-year and 5-year overall survival rate of EC pa-tients undergoing NCRT after surgery,and the prediction accuracy is gradually increased.关键词
新辅助放化疗/食管癌/列线图/SEER数据库Key words
neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy/esophageal cancer/nomogram/SEER database分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张冲,王玉皓,刘桂祥,张进..经新辅助放化疗食管癌患者列线图的构建及验证[J].食管疾病,2024,6(1):28-34,7.基金项目
河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(LHGJ20230324) （LHGJ20230324）
