基于CMIP 6多模式的长江流域气温、降水与径流预估OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]This research aims to explore the impact of future climate change on predicted runoff trends in the Yangtze River basin and provide a basis for early flood warning and prevention measures in the Yangtze River basin and other regions.[Method]Temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin from 1961 to 2014 were evaluated by using the multi-mode set average(MME)of the international coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP 6)and the SWAT hydrological model and predicted under SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios from 2020 to 2099.[Result](1)Compared with the single model,MME showed better performance in simulating temperature and precipitation during historical periods,with a correlation coefficient with the observation value was＞0.90.Further,MME simulated the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation well.(2)The MME analysis showed that during 2020 and 2099,temperature and precipitation increases in the Yangtze River basin under all scenarios were＜50％ and＜20％,respectively.Simulated temperature under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was 1.23℃ higher than that under the SSP1-1.9 scenario,and 0.99 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.(3)Overall,future annual runoff of the entire Yangtze River basin increased significantly and reached 40 380 m3/s under the SSP5-5.8 scenario at the end of the 21st century.[Conclusion]Temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin are predicted to increase in the future,whereas flood disasters under low emission scenarios are relatively less likely.