生态学报2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：2270-2283,14.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202304290904
京津冀地区碳排放时空格局变化及其驱动因子
Spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emissions and its driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
摘要
Abstract
Human-induced terrestrial ecosystem modification is a significant cause of the increased carbon emissions.Consequently,in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,exploring the dynamic relationship between land use change and carbon emissions is conducive to low-carbon and sustainable utilization of regional land.From the perspective of land use transfer,this study uses gravity-standard deviational ellipse method to reveal the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions from land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region.At the same time,the coordination degree between carbon emissions,ecological environment,and socioeconomic development is rationally evaluated by utilizing the Economy Contributive Coefficient and Ecological Support Coefficient.In addition,this paper also applies the modified Kaya and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)models to quantitatively analyze the influence extent of land use change on carbon emissions.The results show that:(1)the transfer of built-up land significantly contributed to the rise in carbon emissions,causing an increase in carbon emissions of 158.44 million,while the transfer of arable land and grassland to forest and water body enhanced the regional carbon sequestration capacity.(2)The land-use carbon emissions exhibited a spatial distribution pattern with northeast-southwest direction that converged towards the center,and the aggregation trend in the east-west direction exceeded that in the south-north.The total transfer distance of the net carbon emission center was 15.15km,of which 13.21km to the east and 6.41km to the north,with a 14.22％decrease in the standard deviation ellipse area,from 2005 to 2020.(3)The coordination between carbon emissions and the ecological environment in the BTH region was improving,but the imbalance between carbon emissions and socioeconomic development appeared in most cities,resulting in a widening disparity in carbon productivity among cities.(4)The influence direction of each driving factor on the carbon emissions of the BTH region as a whole and each individual city was approximately the same,but the influence strength of each driving factor varied for different areas due to the discrepancies in carbon emissions levels.Among which the economic level played a major role in promoting carbon emissions,while the land use intensity per unit of GDP emerged as the primary factor in mitigating the rise of carbon emissions.The analysis indicates that effectively managing the uncontrolled expansion of built-up land is the basis of promoting low-carbon land use,and promoting the development of a low-carbon economy is a significant approach to facilitate regional carbon reduction.关键词
城市群/土地利用/碳排放/Logarithmic Mean Divisia IndexKey words
city cluster/land use/carbon emissions/Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index引用本文复制引用
陈靖松,张建军,李金龙,李山..京津冀地区碳排放时空格局变化及其驱动因子[J].生态学报,2024,44(6):2270-2283,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0117900) （2021YFE0117900）
