考虑驱油与碳减排双重效益的CCUS-EOR经济性及发展模式分析与探讨OA北大核心CSTPCD

Under the dual carbon goal,the focus and difficulty of the petroleum and petrochemical industry transition lie in explor-ing low-cost transition development paths.This needs to conduct systematic research on the development foundation and potential of various transition technologies,coordinate the development and application timing of these technologies,and thus form a technol-ogy portfolio and comprehensive plan supporting the optimal transition path.Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)has high technological maturity and sound coupling with the petroleum and petrochemical industry and is a key technology for petro-leum and petrochemical transition.However,the high cost remains the main obstacle to large-scale development.Analyzing the economy and development mode of CCUS plays an important role in determining the future development layout of the CCUS indus-try,and studying the potential of CCUS for the petroleum and petrochemical industry transition.To conduct an in-depth analysis on the economy of future CCUS technology and its potential in the transition of the petroleum and petrochemical industry,this paper focuses on CCUS with enhanced oil recovery(CCUS-EOR)and proposes a new analytical approach.Firstly,by comprehensively reviewing the entire process of CCUS-EOR,the costs including carbon capture,transportation,oil displacement,and storage are analyzed in detail,with the cost reduction of each in the future evaluated.Secondly,by the prediction of future oil prices and car-bon prices,the economic benefits brought by oil displacement and carbon emission reduction are analyzed,and a cost-benefit com-parison is conducted.Based on the cost-benefit analysis results,this paper further carries out a comprehensive economic evaluation of CCUS-EOR projects under different modes in China,which covers different carbon capture technologies,transportation modes,and storage strategies,revealing the profitability and sustainable development potential of CCUS-EOR projects under different sce-narios.The results show that the CCUS-EOR economy is deeply affected by multiple factors such as carbon price,oil price,and oil displacement efficiency.In the medium and long term,carbon price changes have a greater influence on future CCUS-EOR returns.Under the high level of both carbon price and oil price,the profitability of CCUS-EOR projects is greater and more attractive.Mean-while,the improvement of oil displacement efficiency can significantly increase the economic benefits of the projects.Currently,there are significant differences in the economy of various projects in China,which cannot fully guarantee significant profits.How-ever,there is great room for improving the future economy.For the future CCUS-EOR development in China,it is necessary to break through the technological bottleneck in carbon capture links and focus on developing and applying pre-combustion capture technology to reduce capture costs and improve capture efficiency.Additionally,it is necessary to optimize the industrial layout to form a source-sink matching industrial cluster and thus achieve a synergistic effect in the industrial chain.At the same time,it is im-portant to promote the development of the carbon trading market,guide carbon emission reduction behavior via the market mecha-nism,and create a favorable external environment for the promotion and application of CCUS-EOR technology in the petroleum and petrochemical industry.