|国家科技期刊平台
首页|期刊导航|油气地质与采收率|考虑驱油与碳减排双重效益的CCUS-EOR经济性及发展模式分析与探讨

考虑驱油与碳减排双重效益的CCUS-EOR经济性及发展模式分析与探讨OA北大核心CSTPCD

Analysis and discussion of CCUS-EOR economy and development model considering benefits of oil displacement and carbon reduction

中文摘要英文摘要

双碳战略目标下,石油石化行业转型的重点、难点在于探寻低成本转型发展路径,这就要求系统研究各项转型技术的发展基础和规模潜力,统筹各项转型技术发展应用时序,形成支撑最优转型路径的技术组合和综合方案.碳捕集、封存与利用(CCUS)的技术成熟度较高,与石油石化产业协同耦合性较好,是石油石化转型的关键技术之一,但成本过高仍是目前阻碍CCUS技术规模化发展的主要问题.分析CCUS的经济性及探讨其发展模式,对于确定未来CCUS产业的发展布局,以及研究CCUS对石油石化行业转型的支撑潜力、石油石化行业的转型路径具有重要作用.为深入分析研究未来CCUS技术的经济性及在石油石化行业转型中的潜力和定位,本研究重点聚焦碳捕集与驱油封存(CCUS-EOR),提出了一套全新的分析研判思路.首先,通过CCUS-EOR的全流程梳理,详细分析介绍了各个环节的成本,包括碳捕集、运输、驱油封存等环节,研判了未来各个环节的成本下降空间.其次,通过对未来油价和碳价的研判,分析了驱油及碳减排带来的经济收益,并进行了成本收益对比.基于CCUS-EOR各环节的成本收益分析结果,本研究进一步对中国未来不同模式下的CCUS-EOR项目进行了全面的经济性评估,涵盖了不同的碳捕集技术、运输方式以及封存策略,揭示了在不同场景下CCUS-EOR项目的盈利能力和可持续发展潜力.研究结果表明,CCUS-EOR的经济性深受碳价、油价、驱油效率等多重因素的影响,其中从中长期来看,碳价的变化对未来CCUS-EOR收益影响较大.在碳价和油价均处于较高水平的情况下,CCUS-EOR项目的盈利空间更大,更具吸引力,同时驱油效率的提升也能显著提高项目的经济收益.当前中国各个项目经济性差异较大,无法完全保证明显盈利,但未来的经济性有较大提升空间.针对未来中国CCUS-EOR的发展,需要突破碳捕集环节的技术瓶颈,重点开发运用燃烧前捕集技术,降低捕集成本,提升捕集效率.此外,还需要优化产业布局,形成源汇匹配的产业集群,实现产业链的协同效应.同时,需积极推动碳交易市场的发展成熟,通过市场机制引导碳减排行为,为CCUS-EOR技术在石油石化行业的推广和应用创造良好的外部环境.

Under the dual carbon goal,the focus and difficulty of the petroleum and petrochemical industry transition lie in explor-ing low-cost transition development paths.This needs to conduct systematic research on the development foundation and potential of various transition technologies,coordinate the development and application timing of these technologies,and thus form a technol-ogy portfolio and comprehensive plan supporting the optimal transition path.Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)has high technological maturity and sound coupling with the petroleum and petrochemical industry and is a key technology for petro-leum and petrochemical transition.However,the high cost remains the main obstacle to large-scale development.Analyzing the economy and development mode of CCUS plays an important role in determining the future development layout of the CCUS indus-try,and studying the potential of CCUS for the petroleum and petrochemical industry transition.To conduct an in-depth analysis on the economy of future CCUS technology and its potential in the transition of the petroleum and petrochemical industry,this paper focuses on CCUS with enhanced oil recovery(CCUS-EOR)and proposes a new analytical approach.Firstly,by comprehensively reviewing the entire process of CCUS-EOR,the costs including carbon capture,transportation,oil displacement,and storage are analyzed in detail,with the cost reduction of each in the future evaluated.Secondly,by the prediction of future oil prices and car-bon prices,the economic benefits brought by oil displacement and carbon emission reduction are analyzed,and a cost-benefit com-parison is conducted.Based on the cost-benefit analysis results,this paper further carries out a comprehensive economic evaluation of CCUS-EOR projects under different modes in China,which covers different carbon capture technologies,transportation modes,and storage strategies,revealing the profitability and sustainable development potential of CCUS-EOR projects under different sce-narios.The results show that the CCUS-EOR economy is deeply affected by multiple factors such as carbon price,oil price,and oil displacement efficiency.In the medium and long term,carbon price changes have a greater influence on future CCUS-EOR returns.Under the high level of both carbon price and oil price,the profitability of CCUS-EOR projects is greater and more attractive.Mean-while,the improvement of oil displacement efficiency can significantly increase the economic benefits of the projects.Currently,there are significant differences in the economy of various projects in China,which cannot fully guarantee significant profits.How-ever,there is great room for improving the future economy.For the future CCUS-EOR development in China,it is necessary to break through the technological bottleneck in carbon capture links and focus on developing and applying pre-combustion capture technology to reduce capture costs and improve capture efficiency.Additionally,it is necessary to optimize the industrial layout to form a source-sink matching industrial cluster and thus achieve a synergistic effect in the industrial chain.At the same time,it is im-portant to promote the development of the carbon trading market,guide carbon emission reduction behavior via the market mecha-nism,and create a favorable external environment for the promotion and application of CCUS-EOR technology in the petroleum and petrochemical industry.

谭新;罗大清;宋欣和

中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,北京 100029辽宁师范大学 国际商学院,辽宁 大连 116029

石油、天然气工程

双碳目标能源转型碳捕集、封存与利用CO2驱油CCUS-EOR

dual carbon goalenergy transitionCCUSenhanced oil recovery by CO2CCUS-EOR

《油气地质与采收率》 2024 (002)

70-78 / 9

10.13673/j.pgre.202312026

评论