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碳排放权价值评估探析OACSTPCD

Exploring the Valuation of Carbon Emission Rights

中文摘要英文摘要

为控制二氧化碳等温室气体过量排放,聚焦探索构建碳排放权交易市场,碳排放权合理定价是发展成熟碳市场的核心问题;我国碳市场发展不成熟,碳排放权价格低于其内在价值,准确评估碳排放权价值是研究热点.运用对比研究法,分析不同学者所用评估方法的优缺点;从基础评估方法、期权定价模型、PCV模型、影子价格法四方面分析碳排放权价值评估困境和改进方向.结果表明:公平原则分配方案和单一影响因素分配模型在省域和行业间配额分配效率低,引发碳价频繁波动,难以准确预测未来收益额;评估方法因数据虚报和缺失、参数过多、假设与我国碳市场冲突等方面在评估时适用性差;忽略省域隐含碳测算,核算不全面影响评估准确性.基于研究结果,提出在未来评估碳排放权价值时,应从构建多因素配额分配模型或将配额分配方案组合、优化评估方法、合理测算贸易隐含碳、区块链大数据技术应用碳交易流程等方面深入研究,实现碳排放权合理定价.

To control excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and focus on exploring the construction of a carbon emission trading market,reasonable pricing of carbon emission rights is the core issue in developing a mature carbon market;however,the development of China's carbon market is immature,and the price of carbon emission rights is lower than their intrinsic value,so the accurate assessment of the value of carbon emission rights is a hot topic of research.This study uses the comparative analysis method to compare the advanta-ges and disadvantages of the assessment methods used by different scholars.It analyzes the carbon emission rights value assessment dilemma and improvement directions from 4 aspects:primary assessment method,option pricing model,PCV model,and shadow price method.The results show that the fair principle allocation scheme and the single impact factor allocation model are inefficient in allocating allowances among provinces and industries,trigge-ring frequent fluctuations in carbon prices and making it difficult to predict the amount of future benefits accurately;the assessment methods are poorly applied in assessment due to misrepresentation and missing data,too many pa-rameters,and conflicting assumptions with China's carbon market;and the accuracy of assessment is affected by ig-noring the implicit carbon measurement in provinces and incomplete accounting.Given the research results,it is proposed that in assessing the value of carbon emission rights in the future,in-depth research should be conducted in terms of constructing a multi-factor allowance allocation model or combining allowance allocation schemes,opti-mizing assessment methods,reasonably measuring trade implied carbon,and applying blockchain big data technolo-gy to carbon trading processes,to achieve reasonable pricing of carbon emission rights.

陈静娴;潘立;张淑婷

西南林业大学会计学院, 云南 昆明 650233

经济学

碳排放权碳交易市场价值评估隐含碳

carbon emission rightscarbon emission rights trading marketvalue assessmenttrade implied carbon

《西南林业大学学报》 2024 (004)

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云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2019J0204)、云南省农业联合专项项目(202101BD070001-082)、西南林业大学人文社科科研项目(XJYB2018010)资助.

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