应用生态学报2024，Vol.35Issue(3)：587-596,10.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202403.001
基于beta回归的长白落叶松树干含水率预测模型
Stem moisture content prediction model for Larix olgensis based on beta regression
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the longitudinal variation patterns of sapwood,heartwood,bark and stem moisture content along the trunk of artificial Larix olgensis,we constructed mixed effect models of moisture content based on beta regression by combining the effects of sampling plot and sample trees.We used two sampling schemes to calibrate the model,without limiting the relative height(Scheme Ⅰ)and with a limiting height of less than 2 m(Scheme Ⅱ).The results showed that sapwood and stem moisture content increased gradually along the trunk,heartwood moisture content decreased slightly and then increased along the trunk,and bark moisture content increased along the trunk and then levelled off before increasing.Relative height,height to crown base,stand area at breast height per hectare,age,and stand dominant height were main factors driving moisture content of L.olgensis.Scheme Ⅰshowed the stable prediction accuracy when randomly sampling moisture content measurements from 2-3 discs to calibrate the model,with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of up to 7.2％for stem moisture content(randomly selected 2 discs),and the MAPE of up to 7.4％,10.5％and 10.5％for sapwood,heartwood and bark moisture content(randomly selected 3 discs),respectively.Scheme Ⅱ was appropriate when sampling moisture content measurements from discs of 1.3 and 2 m height and the MAPE of sapwood,heartwood,bark and stem mois-ture content reached 7.8％,11.0％,10.4％ and 7.1％,respectively.The prediction accuracies of all mixed effect beta regression models were better than the base model.The two-level mixed effect beta regression models,consid-ering both plot effect and tree effect,would be suitable for predicting moisture content of each part of L.olgensis well.关键词
长白落叶松/木材含水率/beta回归模型/边材/心材/树皮/树干Key words
Larix olgensis/wood moisture content/beta regression model/sapwood/heartwood/bark/stem引用本文复制引用
曹华燕,苗铮,郝元朔,董利虎..基于beta回归的长白落叶松树干含水率预测模型[J].应用生态学报,2024,35(3):587-596,10.基金项目
本文由国家自然科学基金项目(31971649)、黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(YQ2022C005)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572020DR03)和黑龙江头雁创新团队计划项目(森林资源高效培育技术研发团队)资助. （31971649）
