地质通报2024，Vol.43Issue(2)：197-205,9.DOI:10.12097/gbc.2022.08.030
中国锂资源安全评估与预警
Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China
摘要
Abstract
Lithium is an important strategic mineral resource in our country,under the background of lithium resource demand to increase rapidly,relying on import seriously,to our country lithium resource safety early warning analysis is necessary and urgent.Resource endowments,import security,market risk and geopolitics are selected as first-level indicators to construct an index system for the security of China's lithium resources.The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the security of lithium resources in China from 2009 to 2021.The ARIMA-BP model was used to study the security of lithium resources in China from 2022-2035.The tudy results indicate that:①External dependence,import concentration and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the security of lithium resources;②From 2009 to 2021,the safety level of lithium resources in China fluctuated from yellow-basic safety level to orange-unsafe level,The resource endowments and the import security are the main reasons for the low level of resource security;③From 2022 to 2035,the security score of China's lithium resources continued to decline.Except for 2026,which were in the yellow—basic safety level,the rest of the years were in the orange—unsafe level.关键词
锂资源/安全评估/预警/变权/ARIMA-BP模型Key words
lithium resources/security assessment/early warning/variable weight/ARIMA-BP model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郑明贵,刘丽珍,于明,林玉华..中国锂资源安全评估与预警[J].地质通报,2024,43(2):197-205,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目《中国战略性矿产资源安全评估与预警研究(2020-2050)》(编号:18AGL002) （2020-2050）
