北京大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.60Issue(2)：350-356,7.DOI:10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.095
基于多情景分析的西藏山南地区碳达峰预测及路径研究
Prediction and Path of Carbon Peak in Shannan Region of Tibet Based on Multi Scenario Analysis
摘要
Abstract
This study takes Shannan City in Tibet as the research object, and proposes peak paths and specific policy suggestions based on the prediction results of carbon emission peak values in different scenarios by constructing a GM-ImPACT model. The results show that, the current economic growth rate coupled with strong emission reduction strategies is the optimal path for Shannan City to achieve carbon peak. Shannan City is expected to achieve carbon peak 10 years ahead of schedule in 2024, reducing its total carbon emissions by 20.72％, and its carbon emission intensity will drop by 7.89 percentage points higher than the national level. The proposed model framework could be applied to explore the optimal path of carbon peak for other cities.关键词
碳达峰/低碳路径/GM-ImPACT模型/西藏山南Key words
carbon peak/low-carbon development path/GM-ImPACT model/Shannan of Tibet引用本文复制引用
张扬,张锦博,姜少睿,郭怀成,王书航,付正辉..基于多情景分析的西藏山南地区碳达峰预测及路径研究[J].北京大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,60(2):350-356,7.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金(2023M742426)资助 （2023M742426）
