长江科学院院报2024，Vol.41Issue(4)：46-54,9.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20221523
叶尔羌河源流区洪水极值事件联合概率分析
Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Flood Events in the Source Flow Area of Yarkant River
摘要
Abstract
Based on temperature data from Tashkurgan meteorological station and flood data from Kulukelangan sta-tion,we investigated the probability distribution characteristics of flood peak discharge and 1 d,3 d,and 7 d total flood volume of Yarkant River by using Copula functions.Additionally,we explored the relationship between cli-mate factor variations and extreme flood events through wavelet coherence analysis.Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence return period of two variables surpasses the single variable return period,which,in turn,exceeds the joint return period of two variables.Both the joint return period and the co-occurrence return period increase with the continuous rises in peak flow and flood volume,leading to a decreasing likelihood of corresponding extreme flood events.We also found a high coherence between summer daily average temperature and flood peak discharge series on an interdecadal scale.The summer daily average temperature tends to change 0.13-0.31 cycles prior to the occurrence of flood peak flow.By using Copula functions,we established a two-dimensional statistical model be-tween summer daily average temperature and flood peak spanning from 1957 to 2010.Notably,as the return period of a single variable increases,the disparity between joint return period and co-occurrence return period of the corre-sponding two variables widens.As summer daily average temperature rises,the likelihood of floods in different re-turn periods also increases.These research outcomes carry significant scientific value and offer technical support for the flood risk management and adaptive measures in the Yarkant River Basin.关键词
洪水极值/气候因子/重现期/Copula函数/小波相干/频率分析/叶尔羌河源流区Key words
extreme value of flood/climatic factors/return period/Copula function/Wavelet coherence/probabil-ity analysis/source flow area of the Yarkant River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
司涵,何英,徐慧敏,卢潇悦..叶尔羌河源流区洪水极值事件联合概率分析[J].长江科学院院报,2024,41(4):46-54,9.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划自然科学青年项目(XJEDU2021Y023) （XJEDU2021Y023）
