长江科学院院报2024，Vol.41Issue(4)：78-88,11.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20221560
基于气候变化情景的汉江流域景观生态风险变化模拟
Simulation of Landscape Ecological Risk Change in Hanjiang River Basin under SSP-RCP Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Landscape ecological risk assessment plays a vital role in identifying vulnerable ecosystem areas for targe-ted management.While current methods primarily rely on land-use change data for ecological risk analysis,they of-ten lack a comprehensive evaluation of multiple factors,especially the prediction of landscape ecological risk dy-namics under climate change scenarios integrating climate variations and socio-economic trends.To tackle this is-sue,we constructed a predictive model for ecological landscape risk influenced by diverse factors by integrating tra-ditional landscape ecological risk assessment models with deep learning technique,and further applied this model to simulating the change in landscape ecological risks of Hanjiang River Basin.Findings reveal that:1)during the baseline period(2000-2015),higher ecological risk levels predominantly clustered in the downstream of Dan-jiangkou reservoir;2)both SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios exhibited elevated ecological risk levels,particularly concentrated in the downstream of Danjiangkou;3)the high ecological risk area in Hanjiang River basin signifi-cantly expanded under the 2042 scenario for SSP370 and SSP585,with an average increase of 14.58％per decade under the SSP370 scenario.The proposed landscape ecological risk prediction approach in consideration of multiple factors serves as a valuable reference for ecological risk assessment in the basin under changing climatic conditions and the formulation of ecological compensation policies.关键词
气候变化/景观生态风险/深度学习/SSP-RCP/汉江流域Key words
climate change/landscape ecological risk/deep learning/SSP-RCP/Hanjiang River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴启亮,郑航,刘悦忆,陈进..基于气候变化情景的汉江流域景观生态风险变化模拟[J].长江科学院院报,2024,41(4):78-88,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金"长江水科学研究联合基金"项目(U2040206) （U2040206）
国家自然科学基金青年项目(51909035) （51909035）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52179009) （52179009）
