基于模拟退火算法的元件未知可靠性参数求取方法OACSTPCD

Component reliability parameter is the basis of reliability evaluation in power system.Wrong component relia-bility parameters will inevitably lead to wrong evaluation results,which will affect the accuracy of power system planning.Considering the popularity and installation of load-side smart meters,relatively accurate reliability index of the system/node can be easily obtained.This paper proposes a method to obtain component reliability parameters using reliability in-dex of the system.Firstly,based on reliability evolution of non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation(NMCS),an analytical expression of the reliability index with respect to the variable component reliability parameters is established,which can directly obtain the reliability index value from the given component reliability parameters.According to analytical expres-sion,the nonlinear equations for obtaining unknown reliability parameters of components are constructed.Secondly,in view of the difficulty that the conventional algorithms for solving the nonlinear equations generally rely on the initial values of unknown variables and the initial values cannot be obtained directly,the initial values of the parameters are given by high-order polynomial approximation based on simulated annealing algorithm.Finally,for some parameters with large er-rors,the extension method with wide range convergence is used to obtain accurate unknown reliability parameters.RBTS,IEEE-RTS and Sichuan-Chongqing power grid test systems are used to analyze the results.The cases show that the pro-posed method can effectively and accurately obtain the unknown reliability parameters of the components.