地质科技通报2024，Vol.43Issue(2)：201-214,14.DOI:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220657
基于LSTM_TCN模型的降雨型滑坡时间概率预测及气象预警建模
Temporal probability prediction and meteorological early warning model-ing of rainfall-induced landslide based on LSTM_TCN model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Incomplete landslide timing information can result in inaccuracies in the temporal relation-ship between landslides and rainfall,consequently affecting the precision of a critical rainfall threshold model.[Methods]To address this issue,this study focuses on rainfall-induced landslides in the Wanzhou District of Chongqing from 1995 to 2015.The Henghe Township,lacking historical landslide data,serves as the verification area.We proposed a prediction model for the daily temporal probability of landslide occurrence on a certain day based on long short-term memory(LSTM)and a temporal convolutional network(TCN).This method was used to reconstruct the temporal information of rainfall-induced landslide events by simulating the nonlinear relationship be-tween the duration of landslides and rainfall.After the reconstruction of temporal information,the landslide events were verified and selected and subsequently applied to a reasonable division of the E-D effective rainfall threshold curve to establish the landslide meteorological warning model.[Results]The results showed that the average tem-poral probability of rainfall-induced landslides predicted by the proposed method reached 90.33％,which was high-er than that of the ANN(71.17％),LSTM(72.75％),and TCN(86.91％)models.Using temporal probabilities exceeding a 90％threshold,18 data points,including 42 landslides in the verification area,are expanded to 201.Compared with using solely historical landslide events,the meteorological warning model based on expanded tempo-ral information provides a more reasonable warning classification,and the effective warning rate at the severe warn-ing level is increased by 42.86％.[Conclusion]This method can compensate for the shortage of landslide time in-formation in field investigations and provide data support for early meteorological warning systems for rainfall-in-duced landslides,thus improving the accuracy of early meteorological warning systems.关键词
降雨型滑坡/时间概率/E-D有效降雨阈值模型/TCN/LSTM/滑坡气象预警Key words
rainfall-induced landslide/temporal probability/E-D effective rainfall threshold model/TCN/LSTM/meteorological early warning for landslide分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
赵玉,陈丽霞,梁梦姣..基于LSTM_TCN模型的降雨型滑坡时间概率预测及气象预警建模[J].地质科技通报,2024,43(2):201-214,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41877525) （41877525）
