摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the predictive effect of serum C-reactive protein(CRP),procalcitonin(PCT)and interleukin-17(IL-17)on acute attack in the patients with stable stage of chronic obstructive pul-monary disease(COPD).Methods Sixty-six patients with COPD treated in this hospital from March 2021 to July 2022 were retrospectively selected as the research subjects and grouped according to the number of acute attack within 1 year after discharge.The non-frequent group was the number of acute episodes ≤ 1 and the frequent group was the number of acute episodes＞1.The clinical data of the patients were collected,and the multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent influencing factors of acute attack in the patients with stable stage of COPD,and the risk prediction model of serum CRP,PCT and IL-17 alone and combined detection for acute attack in the patients with stable stage of COPD was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the model.Results There were 34 cases(51.52％)in the non-frequent group and 32 cases(48.48％)in the frequent group.The multivariate Logistic regression analysis results showed that CRP(OR=1.218,95％CI:1.087-1.364,P=0.001),PCT(OR=82.796,95％CI:13.918-492.543,P＜0.001)and IL-17(OR=1.350,95％CI:1.208-1.508,P＜0.001)were the independent influencing factors of acute attack in the patients with stable stage of COPD.On this basis,the risk prediction model was established.The model formula was Logit(P)=-24.506+0.197 × CRP+4.416 × PCT-0.300 × IL-17.The area under the curve of the model was 0.932(95％CI:0.897-0.967),the sensitivity was 0.849,the specificity was 0.911,and the Youden index was 0.760.Conclusion Serum CRP,PCT and IL-17 are the independent influencing factors of acute attack in the patients with stable stage of COPD.The 3-item combination has a good predictive effect on acute attack in the patients with stable stage of COPD,which may be related to the regulation and feedback of these indicators on airway infection,inflammation and oxidative stress levels in the patients.关键词
C反应蛋白/降钙素原/白细胞介素-17/慢性阻塞性肺疾病/急性发作/预测Key words
C-reactive protein/procalcitonin/interleukin-17/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/acute attack/predict分类
医药卫生
