山东科学2024，Vol.37Issue(2)：97-103,7.DOI:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.20230108
地铁乘客的病毒载量演化模型和仿真
The evolution model and simulation of the viral load of subway passengers
摘要
Abstract
A functional relationship was constructed between the probability of inhaling viruses and social distance to characterize the viral transmission of subway passengers at the microscopic level.Formulas for calculating the increase and decrease of viral load were constructed based on establishing the viral load evolution equation.Normalized parameters were used within this equation to describe the effect of pandemic prevention measures.The viral load of each passenger was programmed through the Anylogic software's secondary development interface to characterize the viral load change at the pre-and post-infection phases.In the initial simulation settings,10％of the passengers were infected with the virus,including ordinary carriers and supercarriers.The evolution of the virus under different passenger number conditions within subway carriages was simulated,which was categorized into with-control and without-control scenarios.The simulation results showed the following:as the number of passengers increases,the passenger density increases,the virus transmission increases,and the individual viral load increases rapidly.Isolating passengers with a viral load greater than a threshold of 1 000 and prohibiting them from taking the subway can reduce the viral load of all passengers by an order of magnitude.关键词
城市交通/地铁乘客/病毒载量/疫情管控/演化模型/Anylogic仿真Key words
urban transportation/subway passengers/viral load/pandemic control/evolutionary model/Anylogic simulation分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
卢守峰,黄志康,赵红云..地铁乘客的病毒载量演化模型和仿真[J].山东科学,2024,37(2):97-103,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71071024) （71071024）
