"强省会"战略促进非省会城市消费吗?OA北大核心CHSSCD

Along with the new stage of regional economic development,China attaches increasing importance to the agglomeration and radiation of central cities.More than half of the provinces in China have explicitly proposed the"strengthening the provincial capital"strategy,which aims to strengthen the driving and radiating effect of pro-vincial capitals on the overall economy of a province and the economies of other non-provincial capital cities.How-ever,few studies focus on how the strategy affects the consumption rate and per capita consumption in non-provin-cial capital cities.Therefore,this paper conducts an empirical analysis based on the siphon effect and the diffusion effect using the panel data of 246 non-provincial capital cities in 25 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020.The provincial capital primacy(PCP),defined as the GDP ratio of the provincial capital,is used as the proxy variable for the strategy. Parametric estimation shows a U-shaped relationship between PCP and the consumption rate of non-provincial capital cities.With the increase of PCP,the consumption rate and per capita consumption first decrease and then increase,but the average marginal effects are adverse.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that for provinces with no strong core and single strong core,the average marginal effects of PCP on both the consumption rate and per capita consumption of non-provincial capital cities are positive.In contrast,for provinces with multiple strong cores,both average marginal effects are negative. Nonparametric estimation reveals that when PCP is at a suitably low level(e.g.PCP<0.53),the consump-tion rate shows a U-shaped relationship.However,when PCP is at a sufficiently high level(e.g.PCP>0.53),the consumption rate decreases,meaning that an excessively high PCP has a siphon effect on the consumption rate of non-provincial capital cities.The relationship between per capita consumption and PCP is generally U-shaped.showing that a high PCP has a diffusion effect on per capita consumption in non-provincial capital cities.The find-ings are of policy implications for those provinces to implement the strategy to achieve high-quality development and unleash consumption potential. The possible contributions are as follows.First,this paper assesses the effect of the strategy by incorporating the strategy and the consumption level of non-provincial capital cities into the same research framework.Second,it systematically analyses the non-linear effects of the strategy on the consumption rate and per capita consumption of non-provincial capital cities by taking both the parametric and the non-parametric model specifications into account.Third,it constructs an instrumental variable for the PCP based on the degree of urban topographic relief to control the endogeneity.Finally,it explores the heterogeneity of the effects of the strategy in those provinces with different spatial development patterns on the consumption of non-provincial capital cities.