气候变化研究进展2024，Vol.20Issue(2)：231-241,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.148
中国四大城市群碳排放驱动因素时空分解研究
Spatial-temporal decomposition of carbon emissions in China's four major urban agglomerations
摘要
Abstract
Urban agglomerations are the agglomerations of China's economic development and energy consumption,as well as the main source of carbon emissions.The study of the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in China's typical urban agglomerations is of great significance for the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The carbon emission driving factors(population size,economic level,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure)of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations were analyzed by using ST-IDA model and LMDI decomposition method.The results are as follows.During 2000-2019,the overall trend of CO2 emissions from energy activities in the four major urban agglomerations stepped from the"high growth stage"to the"stable growth stage",among which the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration have basically achieved the carbon peak;The energy intensity effect is the main factor affecting the spatial differences in carbon emissions;The expansion of population size,the increase of economic development level and the rise of energy intensity are the main factors contributing to the growth of carbon emissions in the four major urban agglomerations,while the optimization of industrial structure and energy consumption structure plays a suppressive role;The spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in the four major urban agglomerations depends mainly on the industrial sector.Since the four major urban agglomerations present different carbon emission characteristics,differentiated and diversified emission reduction paths should be explored in the future to promote carbon emission reduction in urban agglomerations.关键词
碳排放/驱动因素/ST-IDA模型/时空分解/城市群Key words
Carbon emissions/Driving factors/ST-IDA model/Spatial-temporal decomposition/Urban agglomerations引用本文复制引用
刘元欣,贺铄,江雅婧,罗旭,袁家海..中国四大城市群碳排放驱动因素时空分解研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2024,20(2):231-241,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"碳中和下煤电退出路径、影响评估及公正转型机制设计"(72173043) （72173043）
