地震诱发浅层海底滑坡易发性概率评价方法OA

The purpose of this paper is to realize the analysis and prediction of regional scale earthquake-induced submarine landslide geological disasters,and to provide theoretical support for marine engineering site selection,infrastructure planning and design,marine engineering geological hazard prevention and control measures and decision-making.For this reason,based on the infinite slope stability analysis model and Monte Carlo simulation method,a submarine slope failure probability analysis method considering seismicity is proposed.On this basis,according to the rasterization discretization of regional topography,a probability evaluation method of shallow submarine landslides under seismicity is proposed and then applied to the Shenhu sea area of the South China Sea,thus realizing the safety factor analysis of regional submarine slopes and the probability evaluation of submarine landslides under seismicity.The results show that in natural conditions,the submarine slope in the study area is stable as a whole,but affected by earthquakes,the safety factor of some steep terrain areas will be significantly reduced,which may induce submarine landslides on the regional scale.The method proposed in this paper can also be used to evaluate the vulnerability of shallow landslides in other sea areas,and is of great significance to the planning and design of practical projects and disaster prevention and control.