水利学报2024，Vol.55Issue(3)：355-366,12.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230388
黄河未来气候情景下冰情特征演变分析
Analysis of the evolution of ice characteristics in the Yellow River under future climate scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Understanding how future climate change will affect river ice characteristics is critical for studying ice flood hazards,hydropower production,and dam management.Based on the meteorological observations in the Yellow River basin and the daily average temperature data from eight GCMs of the CMIP6,the simulation capabili-ty of each GCM for the daily mean temperature of the Yellow River Basin during the flooding period before and after the correction of the quantile delta mapping bias was evaluated,and the future temperature trend of the YRB during the ice flooding period was predicted.The prediction models of maximum ice thickness and freeze-up duration were established respectively.The future trends of maximum ice thickness and freeze-up duration in the Ningxia-Mongo-lia reaches of the Yellow River were predicted.The study shows that the average temperature warming rates during the period 2015-2100 in the Yellow River Basin in the three climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 are 0.014,0.031,and 0.067 ℃ per decade,respectively.The maximum ice thickness values at Bay-angaole are expected to decrease by 8.5,19.5,and 39.5 cm during this century,respectively.The SSP2-4.5 scenario shows that after 2070 only a certain width of bank ice remains in the river cross-section and a large clear channel exists in the middle of the river will occur frequently.In the future,the freezing duration of the Yellow River、Sanhuhekou and Toudaoguai sections of the Yellow River will show different degrees of shortening trend,a-mong which the shortening trend of Bayangaole is the most obvious,the freezing duration of the three climate sce-narios is shortened by 0.13,0.28 and 0.66 days per decade,respectively,and the freezing duration of the Sanhu-hekou and the Toudaoguai section is relatively close,which is 0.07,0.15,0.36 days perdecade and 0.08,0.17,0.39 days per decade,respectively.关键词
CMIP6/凌汛期/河流冰情/气候变化/黄河流域Key words
CMIP6/ice flooding period/river ice conditions/climate change/Yellow River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周中元,王涛,孙亚翡,陈玉状,路锦枝..黄河未来气候情景下冰情特征演变分析[J].水利学报,2024,55(3):355-366,12.基金项目
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究任务(2019QZKK0207-02) （2019QZKK0207-02）
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243221,U2243239,51979291,52009144) （U2243221,U2243239,51979291,52009144）
中国水科院科研专项(HY0145B032021) （HY0145B032021）
