基于PLUS模型的汾河流域景观生态风险时空分异及多情景模拟OA北大核心CSTPCD

Exploring the temporal and spatial differentiation of landscape ecological risks in watershed regions and future multi-scenario simulations provides a useful reference for the diagnosis of regional land development problems and the sustainable development of regional ecological environment.It took the Fenhe River Basin as the research object,based on the three phases of land use data in 2000,2010,and 2020,using GIS grid method,landscape pattern index,spatial statistical analysis and other methods to explore the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the landscape ecological risk in the Fenhe River Basin And its laws,combined with multivariate data.It used the PLUS model to simulate the evolution trend and differences of the ecological risks of the Fenhe River Basin under multiple scenarios in the future.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the average value of the Fenhe River Basin landscape ecological risk index showed an overall downward trend,mainly due to the continuous increase in the area of low-risk areas.(2)Its spatial agglomeration effect increased year by year,and the basin areas with relatively flat terrain were mainly low-risk and low-risk level,and the larger the scope over time,the stronger the agglomeration.(3)In 2035,the landscape ecological risk in the two scenarios will be further reduced,and the average value of the landscape ecological risk in the Fenhe River Basin under the sustainable ecological protection scenario will decrease and the increase in low-risk area is closely related to the increase and connectivity of woodland,grassland,and water areas,while changes in natural development scenarios are closely related to the integration of construction land and cultivated land.