近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程气候特征及长期变化规律OACSTPCD
Climatic characteristics and long-term variation of regional rainstorm process in the Three Gorges area in recent 62 years
[目的]充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义.[方法]基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961-2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监测指标,对三峡地区区域性暴雨过程进行客观识别,并利用多种数理统计方法分析区域性暴雨过程的气候特征和长期变化规律.[结果]结果表明:(1)三峡地区近三分之二的暴雨以区域性过程形式出现,平均每年区域性暴雨过程有8.4次,主要出现在5-9月,尤以6-7月为集中发生时段.区域性暴雨过程首次开始日期多年平均为5月8日,末次结束日期为9月17日.平均每次过程的暴雨覆盖范围为8.6站,持续时间1.3d,平均暴雨强度为74.7 mm/d.(2)三峡地区区域性暴雨过程年频次存在2～3 a和8 a左右的变化周期,年平均区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围存在4～6 a和8～11 a周期变化.(3)近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的首次开始日期显著提前,末次结束日期无明显变化,发生期显著变长;发生频次没有明显变化趋势、平均持续时间、平均覆盖范围、平均综合强度也均没有明显变化趋势,但平均暴雨强度呈增强趋势.(4)近62 a,三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的各项指标均未发生突变现象.[结论]研究成果为三峡地区防汛减灾、水资源管理以及回应三峡工程对局地气候影响的社会关切等提供科学支撑.
[Objective]To fully understand the beginning and end time of regional rainstorm process climatic characteristics and long-term change rules of regional rainstorm process in the Three Gorges region,so as to provide scientific basis for flood control and disaster reduction and water resources management in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.[Methods]Based on daily precipita-tion data of 33 national meteorological stations in the Three Gorges region from 1961 to 2022 and the regional rainstorm monitoring indexes currently adopted in Chongqing,the regional rainstorm process in the Three Gorges region was objectively identified,and the climatic characteristics and long-term change rules of the regional rainstorm process were analyzed by various mathematical statistic method.[Results]The results show that:(1)Nearly two-thirds of the heavy rain in the Three Gorges area occurs in re-gional form,with an average annual regional heavy rain process of 8.4 times,mainly from May to September,especially from June to July as the concentrated period.The average date of the first regional rainstorm is May 8,and the average end date of the last rainstorm is September 17.The average rainstorm coverage area of each process is 8.6 stations,the duration is 1.3 d,and the average rainstorm intensity is 74.7 mm/d.(2)The annual frequency of regional heavy rainfall processes in the Three Gorges region has a variation cycle of about 2～3 a and 8 a,and the average coverage area of regional heavy rainfall processes has a vari-ation cycle of 4～6 a and 8～11 a.(3)In recent 62 a,the first occurrence date of the annual regional heavy rainfall process in the Three Gorges area was significantly advanced,the last end date had no significant change,and the occurrence period was significantly longer;The occurrence frequency,average duration,average coverage and average comprehensive intensity showed no obvious change trend,but the average rainstorm intensity showed an increasing trend.(4)In the past 62 a years,there has been no abrupt change in the regional rainstorm process indexes in the Three Gorges area.[Conclusion]The results provide scientific support for flood control and disaster reduction,water resources management in the Three Gorges region,and respon-ding to social concerns about the impact of the Three Gorges Project on local climate.
王荣;叶殿秀;肖潺;赵珊珊;陈鲜艳;李威
中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
大气科学
区域性暴雨过程气候特征变化趋势变化周期三峡地区极端降雨降水三峡水库
regional rainstorm processclimatic characteristicsthe trend of changeperiod of changeThree Gorges regionextreme rainfallprecipitationThree Gorges Reservoir
《水利水电技术（中英文）》 2024 (002)
16-26 / 11
中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704182);国家重点研发计划(2020YFA0608203)
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