塔里木大学学报2024，Vol.36Issue(1)：59-66,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0568.2024.01.007
基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下枣疯病植原体在中国的潜在适生区
Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Jujube witches'broom in China under climate change based on MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
In this study,the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of jujube wit-ches'broom phytoplasma under historical and future climate scenarios,and the ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the MaxEnt model and to analyze the importance of 19 environmental variables using the knife-cut method to study the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of jujube witches'broom phytoplasma and the extent of their fitness zones.The results showed that the coldest monthly minimum temperature bio6,the seasonal variation of precipitation bio 15,the hottest season average temperature bio10,the isothermality bio3,the wettest season precipitation bio16,and the driest monthly precipitation bio14 were the key environmen-tal variables affecting the distribution of date madness phytoplasma,of which the coldest monthly minimum temperature had the greatest influence on the distribution of the potential fitness zone of jujube witches'broom phytoplasma.The mean AUC of the established Max-Ent model was 0.941,indicating that the prediction results were highly reliable.Under historical climate conditions,the total suitable ar-ea of jujube witches'broom phytoplasma was 2.208×106 km2,accounting for 23％of the total land area in China.The high suitable ar-eas were mainly distributed in central Beijing,all of Tianjin,central Shandong Province,northern Henan Province,eastern and southern Hebei Province,southwestern Shanxi Province,and eastern Shaanxi Province in China.Under two future climate scenarios,SSP126 and SSP585,the total suitable area of jujube witches'broom phytoplasma in China was 2.210×106 km2 and 2.386×106 km2,respectively;the difference between SSP 126 future climate scenario and historical climate conditions was not significant,and the increase between SSP585 future climate scenario and historical climate conditions.关键词
枣疯病植原体/MaxEnt模型/潜在适生区/气候变化Key words
jujube witches'broom phytoplasma/MaxEnt model/potential geographical distribution/climate change分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张学祥,李静霞,马思洁,张萍,朱天生..基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下枣疯病植原体在中国的潜在适生区[J].塔里木大学学报,2024,36(1):59-66,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31060238) （31060238）
