基于概率分析的铁路安全风险传递网络模型研究OA

The traditional risk assessment is mostly carried out on the basis of qualitative analysis,which brings certain limitations to the risk assessment.In order to deepen the level of risk assessment and expand the quantitative risk assessment method,a railway safety risk transfer network model based on probability analysis was proposed.Firstly,35 safety risks were identified in railway group companies.Then,the transfer relationship between risks was clarified through correlation analysis,and the safety risk transfer network model was built based on the risk transfer relationship.Then,the transfer probability analysis of the risk transfer network was carried out based on the Bayesian network.Finally,the risk event of foreign body intrusion was selected as a case to verify the application of the model.The results show that the model can identify the critical safety risks and the critical path of the risk transfer in the safety risk transfer network by quantitative analysis of the risk transfer network based on historical data of railway operation.The model can provide a basis for the effective use of railway safety data and quantitative risk assessment.