西北林学院学报2024，Vol.39Issue(2)：274-284,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2024.02.34
基于土地利用变化的长江上游生态系统服务价值核算及预测模拟
Accounting and Predicting Simulation of the Ecosystem Service Value in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on Land Use Change
摘要
Abstract
To explore the influence of land use change on ecosystem service value(ESV)in the upper rea-ches of the Yangtze River,the spatial and temporal change characteristics of land use dynamics and ESV in the study area and the correlation between them were investigated based on GIS grid spatial visual repre-sentation technology,using land use and socio-economy as data sources,and using land use dynamics,ESV assessment model and spatial autocorrelation model.The results showed that 1)forest and grass lands were the major land use types in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,and the area of forest land,water area,construction land and unused land showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020,among which the ar-ea of construction land increased by 148.66％in 2020 compared with 2000,and the area of arable land and grassland showed a decreasing trend.2)Under the future climate scenario in 2050,the differences of land use changes of each type would be more significant,the area of cropland,water area,construction land and unused land all would decrease,and the fastest change would be in water area,while the area of forest and grass lands would present an increasing trend,and the comprehensive change rate of land use under two different climate scenarios in the future would be stable at 0.80％-0.92％.3)The land use in the study area had great development potential.The land development during 2000-2020 was mainly in low to medi-um intensity,so would be in the future climate scenarios of 2050.while the high intensity land use would be concentrated in Sichuan and Chongqing,especially in the future two climate scenarios of 2050,the regional extreme core distribution would be more significant,which needs to pay great attention.4)The ESV per u-nit area in the study area was mainly in medium and high levels,and the total ESV was stable above 8 tril-lion yuan,with a trend of increasing and then decreasing,but the spatial divergence was significant,among them,the value of ecosystem services per unit area was higher in the central mountainous areas in the up-per reaches of the Yangtze River and some areas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,while the main urban areas in Sichuan and Chongqing were the concentrated distribution areas with low and medium level ecosystem services,and the ESV would be decreasing under future climate change.5)ESV was positively correlated with integrated land use intensity,and spatially it was mainly distributed in high-high aggregation,high-low aggregation and low-low aggregation,high-high type mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and parts of the Hengduan Mountains,high-low type concentrated in the urban areas of Chongqing,Si-chuan,where economic developed highly.The study reveals the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of ESV and land use dynamics in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in 2000-2020 and under future cli-mate change,which can provide scientific basis for formulating scientific and reasonable regional ecological protection policies and establishing long-term mechanisms for ecological protection and restoration.关键词
生态系统服务价值/土地利用动态/GIS/时空特征/长江上游地区Key words
ecosystem service value/land use dynamic degree/GIS/spatiotemporal characteristics/the Yangtze River upper reaches分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
滕皎,李慧,赵彩云,殷晓洁,陈智,高伟杰,李干..基于土地利用变化的长江上游生态系统服务价值核算及预测模拟[J].西北林学院学报,2024,39(2):274-284,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(31700467) （31700467）
西南林业大学博士科研启动基金(112003). （112003）
