中国人口·资源与环境2024，Vol.34Issue(2)：13-22,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20230516
碳中和目标下负排放策略的综合效应
Comprehensive effect evaluation of negative emission technologies under the carbon neutrality goal:a numerical simulation analysis based on the N-DSGE model
摘要
Abstract
Global climate change has reached a'climate emergency.'Many countries and regions,including China,have successively announced the carbon neutrality goal and the net zero emission commitment.In addition to the traditional mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change,studies on negative emission technologies and economic feasibility are in full swing in the fields of natural science and climate economics,but there are few studies on the evaluation of the comprehensive effect of negative emission technolo-gies from the perspective of sustainable development economics.Based on the ecological value theory of sustainable development eco-nomics,this paper combined the comprehensive assessment model of climate change with the dynamic general stochastic equilibrium(DSGE)model of macroeconomics and constructed an N-DSGE model including natural ecosystem sectors to comprehensively assess the climate,ecological,economic,and welfare effects of negative emission technologies.The assessment results showed that:① When the traditional emission reduction measures reached their maximum emission reduction potential under the available technical condi-tions,negative emission technologies could be used to achieve net zero emissions or even net negative emissions.② The low-intensity and small-scale implementation of negative emission technologies had positive climate,ecological,and economic effects.However,with the increase in the implementation intensity of negative emission technologies,the climatic effect was enhanced,the economic effect was weakened,and the comprehensive social welfare was significantly reduced.③ The sensitivity analysis proved the robustness of the assessment results and further indicated that the implementation effect of negative emission technologies would be affected by the tradi-tional emission reduction level and natural carbon sink capacity.Based on the evaluation results,China should carefully expand the im-plementation scale of negative emission technologies,strengthen scientific and technological research and development,and reduce technology costs.China should also adopt differentiated development strategies for different negative emission technologies,strengthen the governance of negative emission technology implementation,avoid and minimize the negative impact of these technologies as much as possible,and promote the synergy of sustainable development goals in terms of climate,ecology,and economy.Even if negative emis-sion technologies are deployed,traditional efforts to reduce emissions cannot be relaxed.Efforts should be made to reduce peak carbon emissions while enhancing the carbon sink capacity of natural ecosystems.关键词
碳中和目标/负排放技术/N-DSGE模型/生态价值/福利效应Key words
carbon neutrality goal/negative emission technology/N-DSGE model/ecological value/welfare effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
沈维萍,夏克郁,陈迎..碳中和目标下负排放策略的综合效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2024,34(2):13-22,10.基金项目
中国社会科学院创新工程项目"碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下的绿色发展战略研究"(批准号:2021STSB01) （批准号:2021STSB01）
国家社会科学基金重大项目"碳中和新形势下我国参与国际气候治理总体战略和阶段性策略研究"(批准号:22ZDA111) （批准号:22ZDA111）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"碳中和目标下清洁能源省域消纳机理及路径研究:基于多尺度空间视角"(批准号:72173133) （批准号:72173133）
北京市博士后工作经费资助项目"行业关联视角下我国商业银行气候风险管理模式研究"(批准号:2022-ZZ-150). （批准号:2022-ZZ-150）
