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2011-2020年中国大豆生产碳排放效率时空演变及影响因素OA北大核心CSTPCD

Spatio-temporal evolution of carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors of China's soybean production from 2011 to 2020

中文摘要英文摘要

准确分析大豆生产碳排放效率与影响因素,可为加快实现大豆生产碳减排提供理论依据与数据支撑.目前,鲜有关于中国大豆生产碳排放效率的研究,且尚未有关于大豆生产碳排放效率影响因素的研究.因此,该研究在选用生命周期评价法核算2011-2020年中国大豆生产全生命周期碳排放量的基础上,采用含有非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算中国大豆生产碳排放效率,并基于Tobit模型探究影响中国大豆生产碳排放效率的主要因素.结果表明:①大豆生产碳排放总量呈现"上升—下降—上升"的3阶段变化特征,2020年大豆生产碳排放总量较2011年提升了47.70%;2020年单位产值大豆生产碳排放为7.48 t/万元,较2011年的5.64 t/万元增长了32.62%;大豆生产的碳排放强度则由2011年的5.16 t/hm2增至2020年的6.09 t/hm2,增长了18.02%.尽管碳排放整体呈上升趋势,但存在明显的区域差异,其中,黑龙江属于大豆生产碳排放总量大、单位产值碳排放高、碳排放强度高的地区,碳减排压力较大.②大豆生产碳排放效率呈先降后升的演变趋势,均值为0.78.主产区大豆生产碳排放效率空间差异明显,除山西、吉林碳排放效率年均变化率为负,其余地区大豆生产碳排放效率年均变化率均为正,且山西碳排放效率具有较大提升空间.③碳排放效率影响因素分析表明,作物种植结构、财政支农水平、农业机械化水平和农业技术水平对大豆生产碳排放效率具有显著正向作用,农业产业结构和农村劳动力受教育程度对大豆生产碳排放效率具有显著负向作用.建议提高农业机械化水平和财政支农水平,并基于大豆生产碳排放效率的区域异质性分类施策,以推动大豆生产绿色低碳发展,促进农业碳减排.

Accurately analyzing the carbon emission efficiency of soybean production and identifying factors influencing the carbon emission efficiency can be helpful to provide references and a data basis for promoting carbon reduction in soybean production.Howev-er,few specific studies on the carbon emission efficiency of China's soybean production have been reported.In particular,no studies on the influencing factors of the carbon emission efficiency of China's soybean production have been conducted.To fill such a research gap,this study evaluated the carbon emissions of China's soybean production from 2011 to 2020 by applying life cycle assessment.Then,the Super-SBM model based on the unexpected output was adopted to measure the carbon emission efficiency of China's soybean production.Finally,the Tobit model was adopted to explore the factors influencing the carbon efficiency of China's soybean production.The results showed that:① The total carbon emissions generated from China's soybean production exhibited a trend of'increase-de-crease-increase,'with an increase of 47.70%from 2011 to 2020.The carbon emissions generated by per RMB 10 thousand yuan soy-bean production were 7.48 t in 2020,which was 32.62%higher than that in 2011,which was 5.64 t.Meanwhile,the carbon intensity in-creased from 5.16 t/hm2 in 2011 to 6.09 t/hm2 in 2020,with an increase of 18.02%.The results of this study showed that carbon emis-sions from soybean production exhibited an upward trend in general,while regional differences existed.For instance,Heilongjiang had higher carbon emissions,higher carbon emissions per value unit output,and higher carbon intensity,posing high stress on carbon emis-sions reduction.②The carbon emission efficiency of soybean production in China showed an evolution trend of first decreasing and then increasing,with an average value of 0.78.In addition,the spatial difference in carbon emission efficiency in soybean production was obvious.Except for Shanxi and Jilin,the average annual change rate of carbon emission efficiency in other major soybean-produc-ing areas was positive,with Shanxi exhibiting great potential for improving emission efficiency.③ The analysis of the influencing fac-tors of carbon emission efficiency showed that crop planting structure,financial support for agriculture,agricultural mechanization,and agricultural technology had significant positive effects on the carbon emission efficiency of soybean production.Meanwhile,agricultural industrial structure and the education level of the rural labor force had significantly negative effects on the carbon emission efficiency of soybean production.Suggestions such as improving agricultural mechanization and financial support for agriculture,and making poli-cies based on the regional heterogeneity of carbon emission efficiency of soybean production are proposed so that green and low-carbon development of soybean production can be achieved and the reduction of carbon emissions in the agricultural sector can be eventually promoted.

陈伟;洪静兰;李照令;王亚平;张天祚;耿涌

山东师范大学地理与环境学院,山东 济南 250358||上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海 200030山东大学环境科学与工程学院,山东 青岛 266237上海大学经济学院,上海 200444山东师范大学地理与环境学院,山东 济南 250358上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海 200030

经济学

生命周期评价大豆碳排放效率影响因素超效率SBMTobit模型

life cycle assessmentsoybeancarbon emission efficiencyinfluencing factorSuper-SBMTobit model

《中国人口·资源与环境》 2024 (002)

70-80 / 11

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"城市低碳转型下典型行业能源-水-温室气体排放纽带关系及协同管理路径研究"(批准号:72004125),基础科学中心项目"数字经济时代的资源环境管理理论与应用"(批准号:72088101);山东省高等学校"青创团队计划""'双碳'目标下山东省重点行业减污降碳协同增效优化路径研究"(批准号:2022RW063);中国博士后科学基金第73批面上资助"绿色低碳转型下重点行业减污降碳的健康协同效益研究"(批准号:2023M732228);2022年度济南市哲学社会科学课题"济南市打造碳达峰碳中和示范城市路径研究"(批准号:JNSK22B04).

10.12062/cpre.20230916

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