中国计量大学学报2024，Vol.35Issue(1)：13-21,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2096-2835.2024.01.003
东部某省交通运输领域碳排放影响因素分解与达峰预测
Decomposition of influencing factors of carbon emissions and peaking prediction in the transportation sector of an eastern province in China
摘要
Abstract
Aims:Provincial transportation is one of the important sources of CO2 emissions.To accelerate the achievement of China's dual carbon goals,we took an eastern province as an example to study the factors that affected CO2 emissions in the transportation sector and predicted the peak of carbon emissions.Methods:Firstly,the LMDI model was used to determine the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in the transportation sector.Then,the basic parameters of transportation were predicted using the grey model,the logistic population prediction model,and the multiple regression model.Finally,through scenario and parameter settings,the LEAP model was used to analyze the CO2 emission trends in different scenarios from 2022 to 2050.Results:Economic and demographic development was the main factor for the growth of carbon emissions from transportation in the region.CO2 emissions would continue to grow in the baseline scenario.The peaks would be at 82.199 million tons in 2043 and 43.442 million tons in 2039 for the green scenario and the ideal scenario,respectively.Conclusions:The transport sector in an eastern province should further increase its emission reduction efforts to achieve transport carbon peaking as soon as possible.The above study lays a theoretical foundation for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies in the field of transportation.关键词
碳达峰预测/交通运输/LMDI模型/LEAP模型Key words
carbon peaking forecasts/transportation/LMDI model/LEAP model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
温丽雅,冯冬焕,黄月红,姚诗汝,戴之希,董文杰..东部某省交通运输领域碳排放影响因素分解与达峰预测[J].中国计量大学学报,2024,35(1):13-21,9.基金项目
浙江省教育厅科研资助项目(No.Y202249422),浙江省科技计划项目(No.2022C35068) （No.Y202249422）
