电力建设2024，Vol.45Issue(5)：118-130,13.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.05.012
基于综合相关性指标与SA-BiGRU的综合能源系统多元负荷预测
Multi-Energy Load Forecasting in Integrated Energy Systems Based on Comprehensive Correlation Index and SA-BiGRU Network
摘要
Abstract
Short-term load forecasting provides a guarantee for the safe and stable operation of IES,but the uncertainty of load fluctuations and the coupling of multiple energy sources increase the difficulty of prediction.To address this,this paper proposes a multi-dimensional load forecasting model for the integrated energy system based on the comprehensive correlation index and SA-BiGRU.Firstly,the comprehensive correlation index is used to calculate the correlation between meteorological factors and loads,and a multi-dimensional load coupling feature matrix is constructed to explore the cross-coupling relationship between energy sources,then the coupled load features are constructed as model inputs.At the same time,It divides the input into different load scenarios using adaptive k-means clustering,in order to reduce modeling complexity.And a self-attention mechanism is incorporated into the bidirectional GRU network to differentiate the importance of input features for enhanced distinction.Finally,compared with other forecasting models,the results show that the proposed method has higher accuracy and shorter forecasting time.关键词
多元负荷预测/相关性分析/聚类分析/双向门控循环单元Key words
multi-energy load forecasting/correlation analysis/clustering analysis/BiGRU分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
侯健敏,孟莹,李志,蔡骏,徐志豪,余威杰..基于综合相关性指标与SA-BiGRU的综合能源系统多元负荷预测[J].电力建设,2024,45(5):118-130,13.基金项目
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52077105),National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.20211285)and Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.SJCX23_0382). 国家自然科学基金项目(52077105) （No.52077105）
江苏省自然科学基金项目(20211285) （20211285）
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(SJCX23_0382) （SJCX23_0382）
