灌溉排水学报2024，Vol.43Issue(4)：28-33,49,7.DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2023439
高邮灌区参考作物腾发量预报模型研究
Predictive models for reference evapotranspiration in Gaoyou irrigation district
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Gaoyou irrigation district is located at the low reaches of the Yangtze River in northern Jiangsu province,China.To improve its irrigation management,we compared four models for predicting the reference evapotranspiration(ET0)in the district.[Method]The analysis was based on meteorological data measured from 2003 to 2017 and the temperature forecasted from 2016 to 2017 in the district,from which we calculated the ET0 using the Penman-Monteith(PM)formula recommended by FAO-56.Using these calculated ET0,we forecasted its change using the Blaney-Criddle(BC),Hargreaves-Samani(HS),McCloud(MC)and reduced PM(PMT)model,respectively.[Result]For forecasting ET0 1 to 7 days in advance,the average root mean square error of the BC,HS,MC and PMP model was 1.07,1.00,1.16,0.99 mm/d,respectively;their associated average mean absolute error was 0.85,0.74,0.94,0.75 mm/d,respectively;their associated average correlation coefficient with measured data was 0.79,0.81,0.76,0.81,respectively.Overall,the results of HS and PMT model are comparable and both models are superior to other models for forecasting the ET0 up to 7 days in advance.[Conclusion]Among the four models we compared,the HS and PMT models are more accurate for predicting ET0 change 1-7 days in advance for the Gaoyou irrigation district.关键词
参考作物腾发量/气温预报/灌溉Key words
reference evapotranspiration/temperature forecast/irrigation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘梦,仇锦先,张秝湲,王洁,丁奠元,刘博..高邮灌区参考作物腾发量预报模型研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,43(4):28-33,49,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52079119) （52079119）
江苏省水利厅科技合作项目(JSZC-320000-HYGS-C2023-00472) （JSZC-320000-HYGS-C2023-00472）
江苏省高等学校基础科学研究面上项目(21KJB210021) （21KJB210021）
