计算机应用与软件2024，Vol.41Issue(4)：73-79,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-386x.2024.04.011
基于自适应AR模型巡航飞行参数预测研究
CRUISE FLIGHT PARAMETERS PREDICTION BASED ON ADAPTIVE AR MODEL
摘要
Abstract
In order to realize the trend prediction of flight parameters more accurately,a stable cruise flight parameter prediction method based on adaptive auto regressive(AR)model is proposed.According to the screening conditions of stable cruise parameters,the flight parameters required for modeling were obtained.The parameters of AR model were estimated by Kalman filter principle,and the system equations were constructed with flight parameters.The parameters of AR model were updated and modified by unscented Kalman filter(UKF)in real time.The predicted values of adaptive AR model were compared with those of curve fitting model and grey model.The data samples of Boeing B777-300ER quick aircraft recorder(QAR)were used for simulation verification.The results show that the adaptive AR model is better in data prediction accuracy and convergence rate,which can effectively reduce the accuracy error of prediction model with the increase of steps and improve the accuracy of parameter prediction.This research is of great significance in aircraft maintenance support,condition monitoring and prediction.关键词
无迹卡尔曼滤波/自适应AR模型/飞行参数预测/曲线拟合模型/灰色模型Key words
Unscented Kalman filter/Adaptive AR model/Flight parameter prediction/Curve fitting model/Grey model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
钱宇,王立新,张恒,刘瑜..基于自适应AR模型巡航飞行参数预测研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2024,41(4):73-79,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金民航联合基金项目(U1833201) （U1833201）
四川省教育厅自然科学基金项目(16ZA0021). （16ZA0021）
